- Odds: Paulo Costa -140, Marvin Vettori +120.
- Prediction: Paulo Costa by TKO.
A middleweight bout is set to headline UFC Fight Night on Oct 23rd. Costa and Vettori are both coming off loses to the champ Israel Adesanya and are determined to prove they are still valid contenders. This fight makes perfect sense as Costa is ranked #2 and Vettori #4, for both fighters to get back into the title picture.
Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Odds
The opening betting odds are favoring Paulo Costa with an implied win probability of 58.33%. (Bet $140, win $100). Standing in Costa’s way is Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori, as a +120 underdog. (Bet $100, win $120). I expect the betting line to drift in favor of Costa who should close as a -170 favorite come fight night. For all the latest MMA odds and news, check out Betting Insider Journal’s MMA section.
Costa vs Vettroi Prediction
This is some real old school match-making from the UFC. You have Brazil vs Italy going head to head, sounds like a future World Cup final. “The Eraser” Paulo Costa hasn’t fought since losing his first MMA fight in September 2020 to Adesanya. Could inactivity affect Costa’s performance? From a betting perspective this is something to consider.
This will be a fan friendly fight and suits both fighters styles. Costa and Vettori are both volume fighters with Costa having the advantage with an average of 7.03 significant strikes landing per minute, compared to Vettori at 3.88.
Vettori isn’t elite in any one area, but he is well-rounded and with Costa having the edge of the feet, he might try to initiate some takedowns on Costa. This would be a cause for concern for most middleweights, but Costa has a takedown defense of 80%.
While Costa has excelled in his UFC career so far, it’s been a short road so far and he needs a win here to get back into that title mix. I don’t expect this fight to show us much new skills from “Borrachinha’s” arsenal but it will be enough to his name back into the title picture against the winner of Adesanya vs Whittaker 2.
My early prediction for this fight is Paulo Costa, who’s better on the feet. He has better takedown defense and will able to stuff the take downs and use his power to score TKO win over Vettori.
Costa’s New Drink of Choice
After losing to Adesanya, Costa claimed he drank a full bottle of wine the night prior and couldn’t sleep. Now in a tongue and cheek fight announced, he posed next to an empty bottle of whisky.
The latest UFC Fight Night on Oct. 23 card includes:
- Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
- Walt Harris vs. Tai Tuivasa
- Randa Markos vs. Livinha Souza
- Daniel Lacerda vs. Jeff Molina
- Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards