Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa are set to clash in the co-main event of UFC 302 on June 1, 2024, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Despite not being a main event or title fight, their bout will be a five-round contest. Headlining UFC 302 in NJ, will be Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier for the lightweight title.
I break down the betting odds for Strickland vs Costa and cover the best bets to make at UFC 302 below!
Strickland vs Costa Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Sean Strickland | -215 |
| Paulo Costa | +164 |
According to preliminary odds on FanDuel, Sean Strickland is a -215 favorite, while Paulo Costa is a +164 underdog. Some real underdog value in Costa securing an early KO upset over Strickland.
Former UFC middleweight champion Michael Bisping favors Strickland, citing his superior cardio and the five-round fight format, which suits Strickland’s economical style over Costa’s explosive but energy-draining approach.
Betting Pick 1
Sean Strickland by Decision
Strickland’s strong defense and ability to control the pace of the fight give him a good chance to outlast Costa. His longer fight times suggest he’s better prepared for a full match.
Betting Pick 2
Paulo Costa by Knockout/TKO
Costa’s power and high striking accuracy make him dangerous, especially early on. If he can catch Strickland with a clean hit, he might end the fight quickly.
Costa lands more strikes per minute (6.20) than Strickland (5.91) and with better accuracy (58% vs. 41%). But, Costa also takes more hits (6.38 vs. 4.33), meaning he can be a bit more reckless with his defense.
Strickland vs Costa Betting Prediction
Strickland is better at avoiding strikes with a 62% defense rate compared to Costa’s 47%. Strickland also tends to fight longer (average fight time of 15:12) compared to Costa (11:09), indicating better endurance.
Both have solid takedown defenses (Strickland 77%, Costa 80%), so the fight is likely to stay standing up. Strickland goes for more takedowns, but Costa is more accurate when he does try.
Strickland’s unorthodox movement and relentless pace could pose significant challenges for the more conventional Costa.
Bettors beware, Costa’s power and technique make him a constant threat, capable of ending the fight with a single shot. This clash would likely be a back-and-forth war of attrition between two action fighters.
To sum it up, Strickland’s durability and strategy make him a solid choice for winning by decision, but Costa’s power and aggression make an early knockout a real possibility.
