Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin 3 Prediction & Best Bets for Sept 17 Trilogy

Canelo vs GGG 3

On September 17th Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin will finally settle their score, after sharing 24-rounds from their first two bouts. The middleweight trilogy will take place T-Mobile area, Las Vegas. While Canelo remains a firm favorite to bounce back from his recent loss to Dmitry Bivol, there is something about Golovkin being the underdog once again that has the public betting on him to make it even.

In this betting breakdown, I give my insights into how I see the third fight play out with some of the best prop bets for betting on Canelo vs GGG. Canelo’s undisputed middleweight titles will be on the line, so expect GGG to put it all on the line. Check out these boxing betting sites for the best Canelo vs GGG betting promos.

Canelo vs GGG 3 Prediction

Before we dive into this betting preview, I want to rewind to 2017 and remember Golovkin’s performance on the night. The Kazakstan fighter was the busier of two landing 218 shots compared to Canelo’s 169.

That’s typically how we see Canelo fight, and he did have moments of success in the first fight. Which ended in a split draw and a controversial one, with many picking Golovkin as the winner. Alvarez was a +170 underdog for this first bout, with GGG being the oddsmakers’ favorite at -200.

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The rematch took place one year later in September 2018. Even after Canelo’s failed drug test which originally postponed the rematch, the stakes were too high to wait any longer for the pair to share the ring. The odds flipped for the rematch -210 for Canelo vs GGG at +180.

GGG’s approach this time around was to try and outbox Canelo and be the counterpuncher. This style wasn’t as effective, with Canelo putting more pressure on GGG and trying to walk down the Kazakhstan. The fight ended in a majority decision, with Canelo taking the lead in this saga.

Since the rematch Canelo has jumped up weight classes and participated in some real modern-day classics. For GGG, he has remained at middleweight and fought just four times since 2018, with his age clearly starting to show.

GGG remains one of Canelo’s toughest challenges he’s ever faced. They say power is the last thing to leave a boxer, and GGG certainly has the ability to stop Canelo if his guard isn’t up. Canelo will also be coming off his first loss since he fought Floyd Mayweather back in 2013. Bivol really made the win looks seamless, could Canelo be starting to show signs of slowing down or was the weight too much? We will find out for sure on September 17.

I clear that GGG has lost a step since the rematch in 2018. Yet, his durability and chin have not been tarnished and technically he still has the power, with a tad less speed and pop behind his punches. I expect the first few rounds to be a feeling-out process, seeing what the game plan is and if anything new approach is brought to the ring.

Golovkin had much better success in his first fight against Canelo, where he used power jabs to keep the Mexican on the backfoot, being the aggressor. This same strategy will have to be applied, at least in some rounds to stop Canelo from getting into his rhythm.

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Canelo will need to apply a similar strategy as the rematch and hold the center of the ring, using combinations to set up his straight right. GGG’s best chance to counter that would be is left hook, which we saw ended his last fight against Ryan Murata.

While there were moments of brilliance in GGG’s last bout, he also looked drained at times. Granted this could be due to the amount of inactivity he incurred prior to that fight. We can only expect the best version of Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez to show up on September 17th.

Canelo can certainly take some lessons from his last performance against Dmitry Bivol at light heavyweight. The undisputed middleweight champion went headhunting all night as if his power at a lower weight class would be intensified – but it wasn’t. Canelo needs to go back to keeping busy in the weight class he shines in, and what a way to do it than but on a showcase against GGG in this upcoming trilogy. Canelo is the money man of boxing right now, while this fight won’t be easy I expect Canelo to get his most confident victory over Golovkin to date.

Betting Pick: Canelo by Decision.

Best Bets for Canelo vs Golovkin Trilogy

We cover some of the best betting props for wagering on Canelo vs GGG 3. Betting on the moneyline in any Canelo fight doesn’t always have the biggest returns due to the Mexican’s hefty betting favorite status. Let’s dive into some real value betting picks below.

Fight Goes to Decision: -142

The most likely outcome of this fight and probably one of the safest bets you could parlay come Sept 17. Bet $142 on the fight goes to a decision to net $100 here.

Canelo wins in Rounds 7-12: +330

We all know by now, that Canelo likes to finish his opponents in the championship rounds. That includes his last win over Caleb Plant, stopping “Sweethands” in the 11th. Bet $100 to win $330 on Canelo stopping GGG in rounds 7 to 12.

GGG wins by TKO/KO +800

Knowing how the first two fights played out, even if Golovkin is winning rounds he would have to dominate the fight to win by decision. Therefore GGG putting it all on the line and aiming to stop Canelo at +800 is a big underdog bet. You can bet $100 to net $800 on the chance of this outcome.

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