- One Canelo vs Bivol betting prop to watch is Canelo by decision -125
- The undefeated Russian champ has odds of +500 to win by decision.
- I think Dmitry has a legitimate chance of winning in our Canelo vs Bivol Prediction; we find out why.
To celebrate Cinco De Mayo, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez returns to take on a tough Dmitry Bivol on May 7th at the T-Mobile in Las Vegas. In the US, DAZN PPV will allow subscribers to rent the event.
This will be Canelo’s second time fighting for a title at light heavyweight after he dispatched Kovalev back in 2019. I give my latest fight prediction for Canelo vs Bivol with some of the best bets you can make on this upcoming bout.
Canelo vs Bivol Prediction
This is the first fight since Canelo fought GGG the second time, and Canelo’s opponent has a huge chance of winning against the Mexican. Bivol holds notable wins over Sullivan Barrera, Isaac Chilemba, and Jean Pascal. Bivol has a great blend of speed, and power and is a smooth operator making him the biggest threat to Canelo in quite some time.
When it comes to Canelo’s progression back up to 175-pounds. It’s important to note he started his career as a junior welterweight, now we’ve seen him dominate middleweight and now return to his highest weight class yet at light heavyweight. The advantage Canelo has here is that his true power can be unleashed without cutting weight.
We’ve seen training footage of a stocky Canelo training furiously for Bivol. Canelo is no longer the middleweight we know anymore. His frame is much stronger and bigger than it used to be, for me he’s now a natural light heavyweight.
I expect Bivol to target Canelo’s body for the most part, by trying to the steam out of Canelo which will eventually limit his movement and eventually his legs. Second that the jab will be fundamental to Bivol’s game plan, with the intention of keeping Canelo at range and jab away. Bivol’s style is very much based on attack and retreat, where he comes in a range to deliver some shots and then retreats. Which is a tricky style for Canelo to craft an offensive plan against.
Canelo will want to come close and make this a telephone booth-style fight. I expect Canelo’s camp to ensure the smallest ring size is agreed on for May 7th, which will give Bivol less space to keep Canelo at bay.
Canelo needs to into a position and time when Bivol is coming in to throw a combination and counter with at least two heavy shots. This positioning will be key for Canelo, we saw a similar situation play out against Saunders.
Where Canelo caught Saunders leaning to the side, and used that against him to deliver the shot that ultimately caused the fight to end. Both boxers have an active streak which is excellent heading into this bout, Bivol fought twice last year. Defeating Craig “Spider” Richards over 12-rounds and then Umar Salamov in December 2021. Canelo will look to target the body just like Richards did, which seems to stiffen up the Russian’s posture even more.
When it comes to output over 12-rounds we’ve seen Bivol slow down, this is not the case with Canelo who usually ups the ante as the championship rounds progress. Given that Canelo is now in his prime and regarded as the best P4P out there right now, it’s difficult to see a way that he losses come May 7th.
Betting Pick: Canelo by decision.
Betting Props for Canelo vs Bivol
We all know betting on the straight-up moneyline on a Canelo fight isn’t the most lucrative. That’s why I have previewed the best prop bets below. For the latest Canelo vs Bivol best bets check out BetMGM Sportsbook.
The fight goes to the decision: -210
All the online sportsbooks we’ve checked, are favoring this fight to go to a decision. at -210 on average, you can wager $210 to net $100 profit that outcome.
The fight doesn’t go to the decision: +160
We know both fighters are going to need a long feeling out the process here. However, I can see some action really heating up in the later rounds with a knockdown being scored and Canelo or Bivol winning by decision.
Canelo by Decision: -125
As we have just covered, my betting prediction is Canelo to defeat Dmitry Bivol by decision. The odds for this outcome are currently -125, bet $125 to net $100.
Bivol by Decision
Although Bivol has won his last six bouts by unanimous decision. The odds of him winning a decision in Vegas are stacked against him. At +500 it’s still more likely that Bivol wins by decision instead of stopping Alvarez.
Bivol by TKO/KO: +800
Bivol has 19 wins and 11 of them are by KO. For Bivol to stop Canelo in his tracks would be a huge upset, that being said you can bet $100 that Bivol will win by KO to net $800.
Canelo by TKO/KO: +270
Canelo has a KO percentage of 68%. We’ve seen this power Canelo carry all the way up to 175-pounds before with the late demolition job of the “Krusher”. This time around it will be an even taller task. Bet $100 on Canelo to win by KO against Bivol, to net $270.
Where to bet on Canelo vs Bivol online?
There are many legal US states you can bet on boxing. From NY sports betting apps that went live to the Louisiana launch. In addition to that Canada had its sports betting launch in April, with Ontario sports betting apps from major US sportsbooks such as BetRivers now available.