Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Odds & Prediction for Undisputed Fight

Jermell Charlo and Canelo Alvarez
  • The latest boxing odds have Canelo -200 against Charlo +160.
  • This will be the first of Canelo Alvarez’s new three-fight deal with Al Haymon’s PBC.
  • Can Jermell Charlo be the one to end Canelo’s reign at 168-pounds?

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is preparing for his next challenge, which involves taking on another undisputed champion in Jermell Charlo.

Charlo, who was originally scheduled to fight Tim Tszyu but had to withdraw due to a hand injury, is now set to defend his WBC middleweight title against Canelo on September 30 in Las Vegas.

This highly anticipated matchup is a fight that fans have been eagerly waiting for, especially alongside the desire to see Canelo to face Benevidez next. Let’s take a look at the latest Canelo vs Charlo odds & prop bets and make a fight prediction.

Canelo vs Charlo Odds

Canelo Alvarez-200
Jermell Charlo+160

According to the latest boxing odds, Canelo Alvarez is a -200 favorite against Jermell Charlo. These are the shortest betting odds we’ve seen for Canelo since fighting Dmitry Bivol, with a suggested 66.7% implied win probability. Jermell Charlo is the underdog with odds of +160. You can wager $100 on Charlo at these current odds to net $160.

Given the magnitude of Canelo and his reach, I expect these odds reflect the early perception of the fight and a shift will naturally happen placing Canelo as a -300 to -400 close to fight night. Stay tuned to this page as we update the odds and list betting props including round betting odds once they’re released.

Canelo vs Charlo Betting Props

Let’s break down the prop bets for the Jermell Charlo vs. Saul Alvarez fight, considering the implied probabilities and potential outcomes:

Over/Under 10½ Rounds:

Over 10½ rounds: -330 (Implied probability ~ 77%)
Under 10½ rounds: +235 (Implied probability ~ 30%)

The odds suggest that the fight is more likely to go beyond 10½ rounds.

Fight Goes to Decision:

Yes: -235 (Implied probability ~ 70%)
No: +180 (Implied probability ~ 36%)

The odds favor the fight going the distance, but it’s not as strongly favored as Alvarez winning.

Method of Victory:

Charlo wins by TKO/KO or DQ: +850 (Implied probability ~ 11%)
Alvarez wins by TKO/KO or DQ: +330 (Implied probability ~ 23%)
Alvarez wins by decision: -130 (Implied probability ~ 56%)

Alvarez winning by decision is the most favored outcome among these options, followed by him winning by TKO/KO.

Fight Ending in Specific Rounds:

The odds of either fighter winning in specific rounds are quite high, but the likelihood of these outcomes is relatively low, especially for rounds 1-3.

Fight Ends Inside Specific Rounds:

The odds are quite high for a knockout or stoppage in specific rounds, but these outcomes are less likely than the fight going to decision.


The odds suggest that Charlo is more likely to be knocked down (+198) than Alvarez (+610). However, both fighters being knocked down (+1600) is considered a less likely scenario.

In summary, the odds strongly favor Saul Alvarez to win the fight, with the most likely outcome being a decision victory for him. Charlo winning by TKO/KO or DQ is less likely but could be a lucrative bet if it occurs. The fight is expected to last more than 10½ rounds, and knockdowns are considered less likely, especially for Alvarez. However, the exact round of the fight’s conclusion is highly uncertain and offers significant potential returns if predicted correctly.

Betting Promos for Canelo vs Charlo

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Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Prediction

Canelo Alvarez’s last three fights showcased his skill and adaptability in the ring, which could have implications for his upcoming bout against Jermell Charlo. In his most recent fight, Alvarez defended his titles against John Ryder, demonstrating his ability to outpoint Ryder but lacked the previous ability to press and get his opponents out of the ring before the judge’s scorecards.

Prior to that, Canelo faced Gennady Golovkin for the third time, a fight where Canelo secured the earlier rounds but GGG rallied in the later rounds and looked impressive for a 40-year-old middleweight. We already knew GGG was past his best heading into this fight, but it also showed us Canelo too was just out of his prime.

In May 2022, he faced Dmitry Bivol at light heavyweight, where he suffered a loss but showed resilience and determination. However, it’s important to note that moving up to a higher weight class against Jermell Charlo might present a different challenge for Alvarez. While Canelo has gone the distance in his last three fights, he still holds an impressive 66% win ratio by KO.

In Jermell Charlo’s most recent fight on May 14, 2022, a rematch against Brian Castaño. Charlo showed skill and determination as he emerged victorious with a resounding knockout in the tenth round, just 2 minutes and 33 seconds into the round.

Although Brian Castaño may not possess the same level of championship status as Canelo, he does present an intriguing challenge for Jermell Charlo. Castaño is known for his relentless pressure fighting style and high guard, making him an excellent warm-up opponent to prepare for a future fight against Canelo. Moreover, it is worth noting that Charlo recently went the distance in a 12-round bout with Castaño, extending his ring time to a total of 22 rounds in consecutive fights against him.

Charlo’s experience in these grueling encounters with Castaño can provide valuable lessons and insights that can be applied when facing the formidable Canelo. The ability to withstand pressure and navigate through an opponent’s high guard will be vital when combating Canelo’s own defensive strategies.

Furthermore, Charlo’s knockout win percentage stands at an impressive 54%, with four of his last five fights culminating in stoppages. This statistic demonstrates his potent punching power and ability to finish fights decisively. Such proficiency in securing knockout victories can serve as a confidence booster and a testament to his skills inside the ring.

With the combination of his recent battles against Castaño and his notable knockout record, Jermell Charlo enters the ring well-prepared to take on the challenges that lie ahead, including the prospect of facing Canelo Alvarez. These experiences and strengths will undoubtedly contribute to an exciting and competitive clash when Charlo steps into the ring with one of boxing’s elite champions.

When it comes to Jermell Charlo, there is one notable weakness that stands out: his tendency to drop his left hand after throwing a jab. This particular habit could prove to be detrimental when facing Canelo Alvarez, who possesses a punishing left hook. It’s crucial for Charlo to address this flaw and maintain proper guard to avoid exposing himself to Canelo’s devastating counter.

In addition to the defensive aspect, another important factor for Charlo in this matchup is to keep the fight at a distance, avoiding getting drawn into Mexican-style warfare with Canelo. Engaging in close-range exchanges might not be in Charlo’s best interest, as Canelo is renowned for his inside fighting skills. Charlo should focus on utilizing his reach advantage and employing effective footwork to control the distance and keep Canelo at bay.

However, it’s worth noting that this strategy works both ways. Canelo, being the tactician he is, may try to tempt Charlo into these phone booth-style exchanges, where his own skills shine. Charlo needs to remain disciplined and stick to his game plan, resisting the urge to get caught up in those intense, close-quarter battles.

Awareness of these potential pitfalls and a strong game plan will be crucial for Jermell Charlo as he prepares to face Canelo Alvarez. By addressing his defensive vulnerabilities and adopting a strategic approach to the fight, Charlo can maximize his chances of success against one of boxing’s most formidable opponents.

In line with Canelo Alvarez’s recent fights, it is anticipated that he will take the lead in the upcoming bout. His strategy will likely involve trying to accumulate points and potentially inflict early damage on Jermell Charlo. Canelo will aim to assert his dominance and control the pace of the fight from the beginning.

On the other hand, Charlo should capitalize on his superior conditioning as the fight progresses. Recognizing that Canelo tends to fade in the latter half of his matches, Charlo’s goal will be to endure and outlast his opponent. By maintaining his stamina and pushing the pace, Charlo can exploit Canelo’s potential dip in energy and capitalize on any openings that may arise.

It is important for Charlo to remain focused and execute his game plan, especially during the later rounds when Canelo’s stamina could become a factor. By weathering the storm in the early stages and conserving his energy, Charlo can position himself to mount a strong comeback and potentially turn the tide of the fight in his favor.

Both fighters will undoubtedly bring their best to the ring, and it will be intriguing to see how their contrasting approaches unfold. Canelo’s early aggression and Charlo’s endurance-focused strategy set the stage for an exciting clash, where the ability to adapt and capitalize on key moments will play a vital role in determining the outcome of the fight.

When analyzing the matchup on paper, Jermell Charlo appears to be facing Canelo Alvarez at a favorable stage in the latter’s career, which sets the stage for a potential upset.

However, there is one crucial factor that could sway the outcome, and that is Canelo’s exceptional patience and timing when it comes to landing devastating shots. Charlo, on the other hand, has shown some defensive vulnerabilities that Canelo could exploit.

Throughout Canelo’s career, we have witnessed his ability to patiently wait for the opportune moment to deliver powerful punches. This precision and timing have often proven to be a decisive factor in his victories. It would be unwise to underestimate Canelo based solely on his recent performances, especially considering that those fights were against defensively adept opponents.

While Charlo may have an opportunity to capitalize on Canelo’s vulnerabilities at this stage, it is crucial to acknowledge Canelo’s skills and strategic approach. His ability to carefully calculate his punches and capitalize on defensive weaknesses could pose a significant challenge for Charlo.

In the world of betting predictions, it is important to consider both fighters’ strengths and weaknesses, as well as their historical performances. This fight between Charlo and Canelo is a unique opportunity for Charlo to prove himself and potentially achieve an upset. However, Canelo’s track record and his ability to exploit defensive flaws should not be disregarded, making the outcome of this match an intriguing one.

Betting Pick: Canelo by TKO/KO.

Canelo vs Charlo FAQs

What are the latest Canelo vs Charlo betting odds?

Canelo Alvarez is -200 betting favorite against Jermell Charlo as a +160 underdog.

What date is the Canelo vs Charlo fight?

Canelo Alvarez, is set to defend his undisputed super middleweight championship against Jermell Charlo in Las Vegas on September 30.

Whats the best bet for Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo?

When it comes to betting on the Canelo vs. Charlo fight, one of the safer bets to consider is placing a straight-up moneyline bet on Canelo to win. While the odds may be lower for this type of bet, it offers a higher probability of success given Canelo’s track record and skills.

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