- Jake Paul is the favorite at -440 and Nate Diaz is the underdog at +340 for their upcoming fight.
- This will be Diaz’s first professional boxing bout, with an MMA record of 21-13
- See our betting prediction for Paul vs Diaz and the best prop bets for this weekend’s fight in Dallas.
Jake Paul and Nate Diaz are set to square off in an exhilarating eight-round bout on August 5, 2023, in Dallas, Texas. This much-anticipated fight will be streamed live on DAZN PPV.
Fans have eagerly awaited this match-up, but it was delayed due to Diaz’s contract with the UFC, which lasted until 2022. Now that his contract is over, the stage is set for Paul vs Diaz. We review the latest Paul vs Diaz betting odds & props with an early fight prediction.
Paul vs Diaz Odds
The latest odds for the upcoming fight between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz are live. Jake Paul is the favorite at -440, and Nate Diaz is the underdog at +340. In this case, the implied probability of Jake Paul winning is around 88.1%, while the implied probability of Nate Diaz winning is around 22.7%.
If you were to bet $100 on Nate Diaz and he wins, you could win $340. On the other hand, if you were to bet $440 on Jake Paul and he wins, you would make a profit of $100.
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Paul vs Diaz Prop Bets
Let’s discuss the prop bets for the Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz fight. If you are betting on Diaz vs Paul going the distance, its important to know your these odds: “Fight goes to decision” has odds that range from +150 to +188, indicating an implied probability of approximately 34% to 40% that the fight will go the full distance.
“Fight doesn’t go to decision” has odds that range from -250 to -225, implying a probability of around 69% to 71% that the fight will end before going to the judges.
Method of Victory: “Paul wins by TKO/KO or DQ” has odds ranging from -138 to -120, suggesting an implied probability of approximately 58% to 58% that Paul will win by knockout or disqualification. “Diaz wins by TKO/KO or DQ” has odds ranging from +600 to +650, implying a probability of around 13% to 14% that Diaz will win by knockout or disqualification.
Round Betting: The odds for Jake Paul winning in specific rounds are generally more favorable for bettors than Nate Diaz’s odds. For example, Paul winning in rounds 1 to 6 has odds ranging from +900 to +4600, while Diaz winning in the same rounds has odds ranging from +4200 to +9000. The least likely outcomes are the fight ending in rounds 11 or 12, with odds of -100000 for both fighters.
Based on the implied probabilities, the most likely outcome is that Jake Paul wins the fight, most likely by TKO/KO or DQ. The least likely outcomes are either fighter winning in rounds 11 or 12, as indicated by the extremely high odds.
Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds Prediction
Nate Diaz, the revered figure in the field of Mixed Martial Arts hailing from Stockton, California, has been cast as the betting underdog in his impending showdown on DAZN against Jake Paul, the YouTube sensation who has since become a boxer. Despite Diaz’s well-documented combat experience, the oddsmakers seem to believe that the odds are in favor of Paul.
The fact that this fight is eight rounds really suits Jake Paul over Diaz. As Nate Diaz is known for wearing down his opponents and applying pressure later in the fight.
Diaz is a solid boxer and is expected to catch Paul during the fight, but how effective his punches will be on the youth of Paul will remain to be seen. We saw Paul take some solid shots from Tommy Fury in his last fight, some of which we returned against Fury.
In terms of fighting styles, Diaz is known for his exceptional Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and boxing skills. With relentless pressure, volume striking, and a granite chin, Diaz is a force to be reckoned with.
On the other hand, Paul has showcased impressive power in his punches and a natural aptitude for the sport, leading to a string of knockout victories. This encounter will undoubtedly be an intriguing clash of styles and experience levels.
If Paul can start fast and connect flush to the body of Diaz and slow him down then eventually work away at the head, then there could be an opportunity for Paul to open Diaz’s scar tissue and have this fight stopped in the later rounds.
Pick: Paul by TKO.
Betting on Paul vs Diaz
In the past, there were several occasions when it seemed like these two fighters would meet in the ring, but the timing was never right. Now, with Diaz’s departure from the UFC, the stage is set for him to face Paul. Interestingly, oddsmakers don’t seem to think Diaz has a strong chance, as evidenced by the odds.
It’s true that the Stockton Native, Diaz, possesses significantly more MMA experience than Paul. However, “The Problem Child” Jake Paul demonstrated his ability to overcome experienced opponents by defeating Anderson Silva. It seems that experience can help, but it doesn’t guarantee victory against Paul.
In fact, some UFC fighters expressed worry about Diaz facing a younger and larger opponent in a boxing match. In a recent interview former UFC middleweight champion and opponent of Paul, Anderson Silva –“Jake’s training a lot. People need to respect everything he’s doing because it’s very professional and focused,” Silva told Fight Hub TV (transcript via The Mirror). “It’s very hard to say who wins, because both are good fighters. Nate is more experienced, he has good boxing and good cardio. I respect both.
“Jake has a good coach, he’s very smart. The fight is not about power, it’s about timing and both have good timing. Jake has now some good experience in boxing and is learning every day, but Nate is a beast! When you go to fight him, you need to prepare for war. I think he has more experience and is the favorite.”
Whos your money on Diaz or Paul? Comment below!