- UFC odds for London are favoring Tom Aspinall -450 against Marcin Tybura as a +340.
- Aspinall is coming off his first UFC technical loss to Curtis Blaydes in July 2022, after suffering a devastating knee injury.
- See our predictions for UFC London and best bets for Aspinall vs Tybura.
The next highly anticipated UFC London event is set to take place on July 22nd at the 02 arena. The main event features an exciting matchup between Tom Aspinall, the #5 ranked heavyweight, and Marcin Tybura, a UFC veteran and currently ranked #10 in the heavyweight division. Aspinall’s promising future in the heavyweight division adds to the anticipation surrounding this fight. Now, let’s delve into the latest odds and best bets for the Aspinall vs Tybura matchup.
Aspinall vs Tybura Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Tom Aspinall | -450 |
| Marcin Tybura | +340 |
The latest betting odds for Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura heavily favor Aspinall, with him being listed as the favorite at -450. These odds indicate that the US online sportsbooks perceive Aspinall to have a significantly higher chance of emerging victorious in this matchup.
In terms of implied win probability, this translates to approximately 82% likelihood of Aspinall winning the fight. Aspinall’s status as the favorite is well-deserved considering his impressive record and dominant statistical advantages.
On the other hand, Marcin Tybura enters the contest as the underdog, listed at +340. This implies a lower probability of winning, approximately 23%. However, it’s important not to discount Tybura’s abilities and experience. Tybura could potentially defy the odds and emerge with a surprising victory.
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Aspinall vs Tybura Props
Let’s discuss the prop bets for the upcoming fight between Marcin Tybura and Tom Aspinall. One of the best props is the fight goes over 1½ rounds: +138 (implied probability of approximately 42.0%)
- Fight goes under 1½ rounds: -186 (implied probability of approximately 65.0%)
- Tybura wins by TKO/KO: +550 (implied probability of approximately 15.4%)
- Aspinall wins by TKO/KO: -165 (implied probability of approximately 62.3%)
- Tybura wins by submission: +1600 (implied probability of approximately 5.9%)
- Aspinall wins by submission: +275 (implied probability of approximately 26.7%)
- Fight ends in a draw: +5000 (implied probability of approximately 2.0%)
- Fight goes to a decision: +700 (implied probability of approximately 12.5%)
- Fight doesn’t go to a decision: -1600 (implied probability of approximately 94.1%)
Now, let’s analyze the most likely and least likely outcomes based on these prop bets: Fight goes under 1½ rounds: This is the most likely outcome according to the odds. Both fighters have a history of finishing their opponents early, and the odds suggest that the fight is more likely to end within the first 1½ rounds.
Aspinall wins by TKO/KO: This is the most likely method of victory for Tom Aspinall, as indicated by the relatively low odds. Aspinall has a higher chance of securing a TKO/KO win, considering his striking abilities and past performances.
Fight doesn’t go to a decision: According to the odds, it is highly unlikely that this fight will go the distance. Both Tybura and Aspinall have demonstrated a tendency to finish fights early, and the odds strongly suggest that this trend will continue in this matchup.
Tybura wins by submission: While the odds for Tybura winning by submission are relatively high, this outcome is less likely compared to Aspinall’s victory by TKO/KO. Tybura is more known for his striking, and a submission win would be considered a less probable result in this fight.
Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura Prediction
Tom Aspinall is a formidable force inside the octagon. With an impressive record of 12 wins and only 3 losses, he has proven himself to be a rising star in the heavyweight division. Despite enduring significant ligament damage to his ACL and MCL during his last fight against Curtis Blaydes, the resilience of Aspinall is now back in action after a year away from the octagon.
Prior to the Blaydes fight, the Manchester-based fighter scored two first-round finishes back-to-back against Alexander Volkov and Sergey Spivak. Aspinall’s striking game is a sight to behold. Landing an astonishing 7.41 significant strikes per minute with an impressive accuracy of 65%, he possesses devastating power and precision in his punches. His striking defense is solid, with a 64% rate, demonstrating his ability to avoid taking unnecessary damage.
While Aspinall’s striking is his bread and butter, his grappling skills should not be underestimated. The black belt BJJ averages 4 takedowns per 15 minutes with a perfect 100% accuracy, he has a high success rate in taking his opponents down to the mat. Additionally, he showcases a dangerous submission game, averaging 2 submissions per 15 minutes.
Although Aspinall’s stats speak volumes about his abilities, he can sometimes be vulnerable when absorbing strikes, with a rate of 2.87 strikes absorbed per minute. This presents an opportunity for his opponents to exploit and potentially turn the tide in their favor.
Although Aspinall isn’t a spring chicken anymore at 30 years of age, he’s still relatively young for the heavyweight division. However, Tybura, at 37 years old, has been competing in the UFC since 2016 and boasts an impressive career record of 24-7.
Tybura has showcased his endurance and ability to go the distance, as evidenced by his average fight time of 12 minutes and 40 seconds. Throughout his career, he has repeatedly demonstrated his staying power and the ability to last in tough fights.
Tybura possesses respectable striking skills, landing 3.55 significant strikes per minute with a 48% accuracy. While his striking numbers may not match Aspinall’s, he compensates with a solid striking defense, minimizing the damage he absorbs. Tybura is 2-1 in his last three fights picking up two decision wins against Blagoy Ivanov and Alexander Romanov, then losing by decision to Alexander Volkov the fight prior to that.
Tybura’s striking accuracy and volume are slightly lower than Aspinall’s, and he tends to absorb more strikes with a rate of 3.31 per minute. This leaves him vulnerable to Aspinall’s powerful punches and combinations.
Both fighters possess unique strengths and weaknesses. Aspinall’s striking prowess, backed by his exceptional accuracy and volume, could pose a significant challenge for Tybura. His ability to mix in takedowns and submissions further enhances his arsenal.
On the other hand, Tybura’s experience and durability cannot be overlooked. If he can weather Aspinall’s storm, he might find opportunities to exploit the slight weaknesses in Aspinall’s striking defense.
Considering the UFC stats for a predicted outcome, a prudent betting approach would be to consider placing a wager on Tom Aspinall to win by knockout or submission within the first three rounds. This offers the potential for a high return on investment, given his dominant performance in previous fights.
Betting Pick: Aspinall by KO.