UFC 279 is shaping up to be a rollercoaster fight week! First, the UFC 279 press conference was called off for the first time ever according to Dana While, due to a scuffle between fighters on the card. We reviewed the new co-main with our latest Chimaev vs Holland odds.
Then Nate Diaz’s opponent Khamzat Chimaev missed weight by 7 pounds. While the UFC scrambled to find a new opponent for Diaz. Many names are coming out of the woodwork including Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson.
“El Cucey” has already weighed in for his return to welterweight and was scheduled to face Li Jingliang. We review the latest UFC 279 odds for Diaz vs Ferguson, which should be a wild fight regardless of the mishaps this fight week!
Diaz vs Ferguson Odds
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering opening Diaz vs Ferguson odds, Nate is a +140 underdog to take on last-minute opponent Tony Ferguson as a -180 betting favorite. You can bet $100 on Diaz to cause an upset at UFC 279 to net $140.
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It might be a surprise to some that Ferguson is the favorite here, considering his losing streak, but the former interim-lightweight champ has an implied win probability of 64.2%
Diaz vs Ferguson Prediction
Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz is a huge fan-friendly fight to replace Chimaev. Diaz is currently on a two-fight losing skid and the odds were certainly against him with Chimaev being such a monster. Now Chimaev could be scheduled to take on Kevin Holland.
In terms of fighting style, Tony and Diaz both have excellent ground games and come to fight. They are both durable and I see a situation where Tony cuts Diaz with elbows open and stops the fight.
The odds for Diaz vs Ferguson are close and that’s what we can expect. There are always unknowns around last-minute scheduled fights, especially when you are preparing for a different opponent. This fight week though, Tony seems in a good place and is dialed in with his new fight camp and willing to give one more shot at welterweight, after a disappointing end to his lightweight run.
Diaz always comes to fight, he’s hard to put away and has cardio for days. If this is indeed Nate Diaz’s last fight on his contract he will go out with a bang.
Betting Pick: Tony Ferguson.