Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega will face off again in a rematch at a UFC Fight Night event in Mexico City on February 24, 2024. The winner of this fight could be the next contender for the UFC Featherweight Championship.
We review the opening odds for Rodriguez vs Ortega 2 with the best props to bet on a final fight prediction for this electric featherweight showdown.
Rodriguez vs Ortega 2 Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Yair Rodriguez | +140 |
| Brian Ortega | -165 |
Despite losing their first encounter by shoulder injury – Ortega is slightly favored in the betting odds at -165, while Rodriguez is a slight underdog at +140. Some analysts argue that Rodriguez’s improved takedown defense should level the odds at UFC Mexico this Feburary.
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Yair Rodriguez vs Brian Ortega 2 Prediction
Rodriguez won their first bout in July 2022 by TKO when Ortega injured his shoulder. This marks Ortega’s return from injury and Rodriguez’s first fight since winning the interim featherweight title against Josh Emmett. Both fighters are eager to bounce back from recent losses, making this rematch highly anticipated.
Fight stats for Ortega vs Rodriguez’s first fight back 2022
Rodriguez has advantages in height, reach, and leg reach, and has improved his boxing skills. “El Pantera” has shown defensive vulnerabilities and tends to lose positioning under pressure.
Ortega excels in submissions, particularly from the front headlock position. His strategy is to take the fight to the ground and control it. If he fails, he’ll struggle against Rodriguez’s striking.
Their reach also differs, with Rodriguez having a 2-inch advantage at 71 inches compared to Ortega’s 69 inches. This could affect their ability to land strikes from distance and defend against incoming attacks.
Moving on to striking, Rodriguez seems to have a slight advantage in both strikes landed per minute (SLpM) and striking accuracy. However, Ortega has a higher striking output in terms of significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM). This indicates Ortega might be more aggressive in striking exchanges but also potentially more susceptible to taking damage.
In terms of grappling, both fighters have fairly comparable statistics in takedowns and submission averages. Ortega seems to have a slight edge in takedown accuracy and submission average, suggesting he might be more proficient in grappling exchanges.
Considering these stats, prop bets could vary depending on the preferred method of victory. For Rodriguez, a prop bet on winning by decision could be more likely given his tendency to go the distance and potentially outstrike Ortega.
On the other hand, Ortega might have a higher chance of winning by submission or TKO, leveraging his grappling skills and potentially overwhelming Rodriguez on the ground.
I anticipate a sense of urgency emanating from both fighters, potentially leading either one to leave themselves defensively vulnerable. As this bout evolves, it appears to be evolving into a genuinely even matchup, with both fighters having an equal chance of success.
Considering Ortega’s recent lack of activity, I believe Rodriguez holds the upper hand, particularly in his ability to potentially secure a stoppage victory over Ortega while standing.
Pick: Rodriguez by TKO
