This weekends UFC Fight Night goes down on November 18, 2023, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card is set to start at 5 p.m. (ET) and will be broadcast on ESPN+. Headlined by two middleweight fighters Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig, here are some best bets, picks and picks based on my analysis.
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Odds & Props
| Prop Bet Type | Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Fight to End by Submission | Yes | +140 |
| Allen to Win by KO/TKO | Yes | +125 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | Over | -110 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | Under | -110 |
Allen is the massive favorite at -440, and the matchup seems to heavily favor him. He’s on a five-fight winning streak and has a more well-rounded skill set compared to Craig. The suggested bet is on Allen to win by ground and pound KO/TKO at +125.
“All In” Allen is one a five fight winning streak and has a balanced approach in both striking and grappling gives him an edge in this fight, making him the more favorable contender.
There’s another outcome of that this fight ends by submission. Both fighters have shown a willingness to engage on the ground with other grapplers, and a significant number of their victories have come by submission. The pick here is for the fight to end by submission at +140 odds.
- Fight to End by Submission: With both Allen and Craig being strong in submissions, this bet seems a smart choice. The odds for the fight to end by submission are at +140, which seems quite favorable given their histories.
- Allen by KO/TKO: Allen’s striking has shown significant improvement, making a bet on him winning by KO/TKO appealing. This outcome is offered at +125, offering good value considering Allen’s recent form.
- Over/Under 1.5 Rounds: Given their early finish records, the over/under for 1.5 rounds is an interesting prop bet. The odds for both over and under 1.5 rounds are -110, reflecting the unpredictability of this outcome. I’m inclined to bet on the over, anticipating a longer fight due to the fighters’ experience and resilience.
Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt Odds
In the lightweight bout between Chase Hooper and Jordan Leavitt, the numbers slightly support Hooper. However, considering Hooper is a -235 favorite and the value play, the suggestion is to side with Leavitt at +180.
Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews Odds
Morales, with a significant height and reach advantage, is the favorite against Jake Matthews. Despite Matthews’ inconsistency, Morales’s takedown defense and power are expected to be the difference. The recommended bet is on Morales by decision at +230.
