- Khabib remains a firm betting favorite (-300) against Gaethje (+240), we preview the best bets for UFC 254.
- Khabib & Gaethje are both listed at +400, to win by KO/TKO.
- The odds are stacked against Justin Gaethje, can he overcome Khabib to become the new lightweight champion? We give out prediction below.
The current most dominant UFC champion; Khabib Nurmagomedov returns this weekend to defend his lightweight title against Justin Gaethje. Check out the odds and prediction below!
Khabib vs Gaethje Betting Odds
In the latest odds for UFC 254, Khabib Nurmagomedov is a -300 favorite (Risk $300, win $100). Justin Gaethje is a +240 underdog (Risk $100, win $250).
The betting line for Khabib vs Gaethje has shifted slightly in the favor of Gaethje, with bettors backing the the underdog more. As fight week progresses expect the line to change especially the betting props of KO or submission victories.
Prediction for Khabib vs Gaethje
Khabib the undefeated and undisputed champion, seems like an unstoppable force these past few years of action. With that being said, Justin Gaethje’s confidence is just as high. He’s coming off Khabib’s #1 contender for quite some time, Tony Ferguson.
This will be the true test of Gaethje’s career. He’s a 2.0 version of himself and admits that, after suffering losses to Poirier and Alvarez back to back. He went back to the drawing room and changed his fighting style. His new fighting style works excellent against strikers, but against a mauler like Khabib it’s really unknown.
Expect both fighters to land shots on the feet. Khabib’s striking has evolved, which we seen against Iaquinta and McGregor. He will utilize his jab, which is perfect for setting up his takedowns. Remember that is always Khabib’s A-Plan to get his opponents to the ground.
Due to Gaethje’s wrestling experience and game plan, he will be able to pop back up and this will give the underdog some faith. The question is how many times can Gaethje stuff Khabib’s takedowns? The grind is real against Khabib, and that’s one piece of information Gaethje has revealed that won’t go in his favor.
“I walked out from a 7-minute match almost every time…unable to walk and my fight are cramping up. The way I wrestle or the way I do anything is not…you don’t preserve energy. So I don’t wrestle to preserve energy.”
The positioning of where Gaethje is when these takedowns occur is also a key element. With his new style where he skirts around the octagon, this would put Gaethje against the cage – a detrimental position.
Our prediction is a classic Khabib victory, similar to his last win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 242.
Best Bets at UFC 254
There a range of betting options for the main card at UFC 254. Check out our list of recommended sites prior to betting for all the best sportsbook promos for signing up.
Khabib by Submission +200
Khabib to win by submission is our best value bet at UFC 254. The Eagle has 36% of his 28 wins by submission. Knowing Gaethje’s durability this would be a smart path to victory for champ. (Risk $100, win $100)
Gaethje by KO/TO +400
On the other side of the octagon will stand a KO machine. Gaethje has 19 KO/TKO wins under his belt, that’s a whooping 86%. (Risk $100, win $400).
Total Rounds (4.5) Over +120
Going against all the finishing prop bets above. We have opted for something a little different, basically a bet where if the fight ends past 4.5 rounds (Basically decision or late finish).