Spence vs Ugas Prediction & Best Bets for April 16

Spence vs Ugas Prediction
  • We review the latest Spence vs Ugas prediction for their upcoming welterweight clash.
  • One of my favorite best bets is Spence Jr to win by TKO/KO at +200
  • Errol Spence is favored to win by decison – 140 against Ugas

One of the most anticipated events in 2022 includes Errol Spence Jr.’s fight against Yordenis Ugas. The two elite welterweights are set to unify three of the four belts in Arlington, Texas this Saturday. The stage is set for this huge event on Showtime PPV. We review the latest Spence vs Ugas odds, with an fight prediction to follow.

Spence vs Ugas Prediction

Errol Spence Jr. is a star in his own right a and major betting favorite, -550 via BetMGM Sportsbook. Although his last match was 21 months ago, he’s looking sharp and motivated to unify the welterweight division even further with a win over Yordenis Ugas.

Errol Spence, Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas: A Battle of Technicians | Spence-Ugas Preview | Morning Kombat

Ugas last entered the ring in September 2021 to take on the legend of Manny Pacquiao rather than Spence Jr, who was unable to proceed to his contest with Pacquiao because of the damage he suffered. Ugas had an excellent game plan and fought a smart fight, where he counterpunched Pacquiao and retained the WBA (Super) welterweight title.

In 2019, we saw Spence face adversity defeating Mikey Garcia and Shawn Porter, in both of those fights he looked drained at weight-ins, and while they were good performances. I expect him to look even better in 2022, with that extra level being unleashed on April 16th in Texas.


According to RingNews24, Spence’s nutritionist has him in a better place. Responding to a statement made Wednesday by Ugas’ trainer Ismael Salas that he was a “different” fighter in his first fight back after a 2019 car accident, Spence smiled and said he was now in better shape physically and mentally and that Ugas’ trainer would soon see.

Errol Spence’s weight cut has always had the discipline to cut down and make weight at welterweight. On top of that, he’s hired a nutritionist for the first time ever during this fight camp. Honestly, this could mean we will see one of the sharpest versions of Spence we’ve seen in a long time.

Spence will look to step towards Ugas from the opening bell and judge the distance and let some of Ugas’s shots graze off his gloves and get a taste for the power.

As always in Spence’s game, the jab will be the biggest factor in this fight and with a 3-inch reach advantage, I don’t expect Ugas to have the same comfort that he did against Pacquiao last year. That being said, Ugas will still try and counter Spence, making this fight a real chess game at times and trying to outsmart the “The Truth”

Spence’s motor can’t be matched at welterweight, he consistently goes to the body with strong shots. He knows how to cut off the ring, which could cause many problems for Ugas.

Spence will leverage every opportunity to unleash all his best tools on Ugas. In terms of betting on Spence, give him four to six rounds at least to take control of this fight. As the fight progresses I see Ugas losing more rounds and taking more risks.

In terms of betting Spence to win by TKO/KO the odds are currently at +200, bet $100 to net $200. Over his past three fights, Spence has won by decision, but the stakes are even higher here with both boxers not wanting to settle for a decision.

I can see both scenarios playing out here, Spence wins by a late finish or more likely goes to judges’ scorecards and wins by decision.

Spence Jr. by Decision.

Spence Jr. vs Ugas Betting Props

Betting PropOdds
Spence by decision-120
Spence by TKO/KO+200
Ugas by decison+600
Ugas by TKO/KO+1200

Above are some of our favorite betting props for Spence vs Ugas. The biggest odds selection would be Ugas to knockout Spence with a $100 wager netting you $1200 on the unlikely chances of that upset. Personally, my favorite bet outside of Spence to win by decision is Spence to win by TKO/KO at +200. Check out some of these boxing betting sites prior to wagering on this fight.

Spence vs. Ugas card, odds

  • Errol Spence, Jr. (c) -550 vs. Yordenis Ugas (c) +400, welterweight unification
  • Isaac Cruz vs. Yuriokis Gamboa, lightweight
  • Jose Valenzuela vs. Francisco Vargas, lightweight
  • Cody Crowley vs. Josesito Lopez, welterweight
  • Eimantas Stanionis vs. Radzhab Butaev, welterweight
  • Brandun Lee vs. Zachary Ochoa, junior welterweight

How to watch Spence vs Ugas: Viewing Details

  • Date: April 16 | Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
  • Start time: 9 p.m. ET | PPV price: $74.99
  • How to watch: Showtime PPV | Stream: Showtime.com 

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