- MacKenzie Dern is a -190 favorite vs Angela Hill is +160 for UFC Vegas 72.
- See our betting props and predictions for Dern vs Hill below.
UFC Vegas 72 goes down May 20 card at APEX, headlined by MacKenzie and Angela “Overkill” Hill at strawweight. Dern is looking to rebound from a loss to Xiaonan Yan, while Hill is aiming to make it three in a row. We review the latest Dern vs Hill odds with prop bets and predictions for this main event.
Dern vs Hill Odds
Mackenzie Dern is currently favored to win the match with odds of -190, while Angela Hill is the underdog with odds of +160. This means that if you bet $185 on Dern and she wins, you will receive $100 in profit. On the other hand, if you bet $100 on Hill and she wins, you will receive a profit of $150.
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Dern vs Hill Prop Bets
The over/under for the total number of rounds is set at 4.5, with over 4.5 rounds at -160 and under 4.5 rounds at +130. For each round, the odds of Hill or Dern winning by submission in that round are set at -118, while the odds of any other result are not available.
The odds of Hill or Dern winning by KO/TKO or decision are TBD. Based on the odds, the bookmakers seem to believe that the fight is likely to go to a decision and that it is also unlikely to end in a draw.
MacKenzie Dern vs Angela Hill Prediction
While the oddsmakers do favor Dern to get the job done at UFC Fight Night 223. There are some key ways Hill can win this fight with her experience and striking. Let’s take a deeper dive into some UFC fight stats and fighting styles.
In terms of physical attributes, Dern is slightly taller than Hill, standing at 5’4″ compared to Hill’s 5’3″. However, Hill has a longer reach, with a reach of 64″ compared to Dern’s 63″.
Their average fight times also differ slightly, with Dern’s fights averaging 12 minutes and 22 seconds while Hill’s fights average 14 minutes and 2 seconds. Both fighters have an orthodox stance.
Mackenzie Dern is 2-2 in her last four fights. Her most recent fight was a loss against Yan Xiaonan went to a decision on October 1, 2022, in Las Vegas. Prior to that, Dern had a win against Tecia Torres at UFC 273 on April 9, 2022. It was a split decision, and the fight lasted for three rounds and five minutes in Jacksonville, Florida.
Before her win against Torres, Dern suffered a loss to Marina Rodriguez and won her 2021 bout against Nina Nunes by armbar submission. Hill on the other hand is on a two-fight winning streak, with three straight losses prior to that. Hill is now 38 years of age and is a true vet in women’s MMA.
Angela Hill has a clear advantage in striking, with a significantly higher striking accuracy and a higher rate of significant strikes landed per minute compared to Mackenzie Dern.
Hill also has a better striking defense, meaning she’s better equipped to avoid and block strikes. However, Dern’s toughness and durability can’t be ignored as she has a higher striking absorption rate than Hill. Dern will need to focus on her striking defense and work on landing more significant strikes to stay competitive in this area.
Mackenzie Dern has a clear advantage in grappling, with a higher average of takedowns per 15 minutes and a much higher submission average per 15 minutes compared to Angela Hill.
However, Hill’s takedown defense is much better than Dern’s, which means Dern will need to work hard to take Hill down. If Dern can successfully take Hill down, she will have a great opportunity to work toward a submission. On the other hand, Hill will want to avoid being taken down and work on her takedown defense to keep the fight standing.
Hill’s striking and Dern’s grappling will be the key factors to watch out for in this fight. If Hill can keep the fight standing and outstrike Dern, she has a good chance of winning. If Dern can successfully take Hill down and work towards a submission, she can come out on top.
Dern has shown massive improvements in her striking over the years and has real grit inside the octagon. I see Dern willing to take one or two shots in order to give one back and close the distance, by using her size to control Hill and secure a submission win at UFC Vegas 72.
Pick: Dern by submission.