The BMF title will return at UFC 300 this April as Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje will defend the title against Max “Blessed” Holloway at 155 pounds. We review the early odds for Gaethje vs Holloway with a fight breakdown and best prop bets to make for this fight.
Gaethje vs Holloway Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Justin Gaethje | -218 |
| Max Holloway | +180 |
The current BMF champ Justin Gaethje is a solid -218 betting favorite to retain his title at UFC 300. Max Holloway enters this bout as a +180 underdog, giving “Blessed” a 35.7% chance.
Max Holloway is making his second attempt to move up to lightweight in his UFC journey. This is a crucial factor to consider when betting on “Blessed.” However, this time, Holloway asserts that he has adequately prepared for the move, ensuring a properly sized lightweight showdown.
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Gaethje vs Holloway Betting Props for UFC 300
When it comes to method of victory, Gaethje winning by TKO/KO has decent odds across the board, ranging from +125 to +140. Given Gaethje’s aggressive striking style, this outcome seems quite plausible.
On the flip side, Holloway winning by TKO/KO is seen as less likely with odds ranging from +750 to +900. This reflects the perception that Gaethje has more power and aggression in his striking.
Another interesting bet is the fight not going to decision, with odds ranging from -106 to -125. This suggests that there’s a strong expectation for the fight to end before the judges’ scorecards are needed.
As for the least likely outcomes, bets like the fight going to a draw (+4500 to +5000) or either fighter winning by submission (+2000 to +2500) are seen as quite improbable based on the odds. Both Gaethje and Holloway are known for their striking abilities rather than their submission games, making these outcomes less likely.
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Gaethje vs Holloway Fight Stats
- Max Holloway holds a remarkable record, landing 1,883 significant strikes in his last 10 fights, surpassing the career totals of all other UFC fighters.
- Over his past three fights, Holloway has demonstrated an impressive performance, averaging 11.58 significant strikes per minute and achieving a striking differential of 6.44.
- Justin Gaethje boasts a striking accuracy of 60%, successfully landing 861 significant strikes out of 1429 attempted.
Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway Prediction
At 32 years old, Holloway is evolving into a seasoned veteran in the sport. Following his defeat to Volkanovski in their third encounter in 2022, Max made a comeback in 2023 with two notable victories. He secured an impressive win against Arnold Allen, followed by a third-round knockout against the Korean Zombie.
Given his success and experience, a return to the 155-pound weight class appears logical for Max. Notably, his only loss in this higher weight class was to Dustin Poirier at UFC 236 in 2019.
Gaethje encountered a parallel scenario after his title loss to Charles Oliveira in 2022. Displaying remarkable determination, he made a powerful statement by defeating the emerging talent Rafael Fiziev.
Gaethje continued his resurgence by halting Dustin Poirier with a second-round headkick at UFC 291, securing the UFC BMF belt. Considering Gaethje’s current trajectory, I perceive him as one of the most baddest fighters one could face once in 2024.
His mental resilience stands out, and while his submission defense is a potential vulnerability, it shouldn’t be a significant concern against Max. Both fighters tend to be gradual starters, and Max will probably require a round or two to acclimate to the 155-pound weight class.
If Max can accelerate his tempo early and leverage his agility, there’s a possibility of him securing some of the initial rounds. However, Gaethje possesses a diverse array of weapons, including leg and head kicks, as well as powerful punches, which could prove overwhelming for Max.
In this scenario, I envision Gaethje’s size and punching power leading to a knockout victory, likely occurring between rounds 4-5, allowing him to retain the BMF belt.
Pick: Gaethje by KO / Over 2.5 Rounds
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