- UFC Noche odds have the reigning champ Grasso +150 against Shevchenko -185.
- Can Shevchenko find a way to get even for a future trilogy or has Grasso got her number?
- We review the latest Grasso vs Shevchenko odds with a pick & fight prediction.
Noche UFC, also known as “Mexico Night,” commemorates Mexican Independence Day and will unfold at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Despite featuring a title bout, this event will be accessible through regular ESPN+ streaming (starting at 7 p.m. ET) rather than as a pay-per-view event.
In the main attraction, the recently crowned women’s flyweight champion, Alexa Grasso, will face off against the former long-reigning titleholder, Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso previously caused a major upset by securing victory over Shevchenko with a face crank submission at UFC 285 in March. Let’s get right into the odds and props for UFC Noche.
Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Alexa Grasso | +150 |
| Valentina Shevchenko | -185 |
BetMGM Sportsbook have the newly crowned flyweight champion Alexa Grasso as a +150 underdog against Valentina Shevchenko -185. Grasso will be defending her belt on home soil in Mexico, with a 40% chance of defeating the “Bullet” a second time. Betting $100 on Grasso at these current odds could net $150 profit.
Shevchenko has been one of the most dominant champions in UFC history, with seven title defences under her belt she still remains the betting favorite at 35 years of age.
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Best Props for UFC Noche
Let’s discuss the prop bets for the Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko fight. These odds represent the implied probabilities of various outcomes, and we’ll analyze the most likely and least likely scenarios based on the fighters’ odds and potential methods of victory.
Over/Under Rounds:
Over 1½ rounds: -715
Under 1½ rounds: +400
The odds heavily favor the fight going beyond 1½ rounds, indicating a high probability of a longer fight.
Method of Victory:
- Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO: +390
- Grasso wins by submission: +400
The odds suggest that the most likely outcomes are Shevchenko winning by TKO/KO or Grasso winning by submission, although both are still relatively less likely.
Inside Distance:
- Shevchenko wins inside distance: +200
- Grasso wins inside distance: +350
The odds favor the fight going the distance, with higher payouts for a finish inside the distance. Shevchenko winning inside distance has better odds compared to Grasso.
Fight Ends in a Specific Round:
The odds for each round ending are heavily skewed towards a longer fight, with very high odds against early-round finishes.
Most Likely Outcome:
Valentina Shevchenko winning by decision at +185. Shevchenko is known for her technical skills, making a decision victory more likely.
Least Likely Outcome:
A draw at +4500. Draws are extremely rare in MMA, so this is the least likely outcome.
Overall, the sportsbooks imply that Shevchenko is the favorite to win, and a decision victory for her is the most likely scenario. However, there is potential value in betting on Grasso winning by submission or a Shevchenko TKO/KO, given the odds provided. Remember, these odds are subject to change, and it’s important to do your research and consider the fighters’ recent performances and styles before placing your bets.
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 2 Prediction
Six months following her incredible upset victory as a +610 underdog, Alexa Grasso is set to face Valentina Shevchenko once more. This time, Grasso holds the title. Can she successfully defend her championship?
Alexa Grasso boasts a higher Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) at 4.88 compared to Valentina Shevchenko’s 3.29. However, Shevchenko takes the lead in Striking Accuracy, landing 53% of her strikes compared to Grasso’s 43%. This suggests that while Grasso may throw more volume, Shevchenko’s striking is more precise and efficient.
Grasso also has a higher Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM) at 4.07, indicating that she tends to get hit more often than Shevchenko, who has an impressively low SApM of 1.99. Valentina excels in defense, with a 63% striking defense compared to Grasso’s 59%. Shevchenko’s striking defense gives her an edge in avoiding damage.
In the grappling department, Shevchenko dominates. Shevchenko’s Takedown Accuracy is 64%, while Grasso’s is at 44%. Additionally, Shevchenko averages 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Grasso’s 0.38.
Grasso’s Takedown Defense is respectable at 61%, but Shevchenko’s Takedown Defense stands at an even more impressive 72%. Shevchenko’s grappling skills, particularly her takedowns and takedown defense, give her a significant advantage in controlling the fight.
While both fighters have submission skills, Shevchenko holds a slight edge in Submission Average, averaging 0.3 submissions per 15 minutes compared to Grasso’s 0.6. However, it’s worth noting that submissions may not be the primary focus for either fighter in this matchup.
To win, Grasso should utilize her higher striking volume to keep Shevchenko on her toes. She should aim to maintain distance and avoid clinch situations where Shevchenko’s grappling skills shine. Grasso might target Shevchenko’s lower striking defense, looking for opportunities to land significant strikes.
Shevchenko’s precision striking should be her primary weapon. She should capitalize on her higher striking accuracy to pick Grasso apart. Utilizing her superior grappling, Shevchenko can look for takedowns and control on the ground.
Shevchenko’s experience advantage could also come into play, as she’s faced tougher competition in her career.
In all honesty, Valentina Shevchenko stands as the superior fighter when compared to Alexa Grasso. While her loss six months ago caught us all by surprise, it’s challenging to envision a repeat performance.
Betting Pick: Shevchenko & Over 2.5 Rounds
Main Card
- 10 p.m. ET
- ESPN+
Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Padilla | -258 |
| Nelson | +210 |
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Zellhuber | -278 |
| Giagos | +225 |
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrence Mitchell Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rosas | -540 |
| Mitchell | +360 |
Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Holland | -105 |
| Della Maddalena | -115 |
Preliminary Card
- 7 p.m. ET
- ESPN+
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Josefine Lindgren Knutsson Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lucindo | +330 |
| Knutsson | -425 |
Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cortez | -125 |
| Jasudavicius | +105 |
Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chairez | -225 |
| Lacerda | +185 |
Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kopylov | -298 |
| Fremd | +240 |
Loopy Godinez vs. Elise Reed
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Godinez Odds | -440 |
| Reed Odds | +340 |