- Odds for UFC 294 has Khamzat Chimaev as a -400 favorite against Paulo Costa +285.
- Will Costa’s gas tank last or will he be the first fighter to stop Khamzat?
- We give the best bets and props for Khamzat vs Costa at UFC 294.
The highly anticipated showdown between Khamzat Chimaev and Paulo Costa in set to feature as the co-main at UFC 294, October 21, live From Etihad Arena In Abu Dhabi. Headlined by Makhachev vs Oliveira 2.
This thrilling middleweight clash, features two fierce competitors known for their fiery exchanges and a longstanding history of rivalry. Chimaev and Costa have engaged in a war of words for quite some time, now its time to see what the best bets are to make this enticing fight even more fun to watch.
Khamzat vs Costa Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Khamzat Chimaev | -400 |
| Paulo Costa | +285 |
According to FanDuel Sportsbook Khamzat Chimaev is a -400 betting favorite to defeat Paulo Costa at UFC 294. That’s a 80% implied win probability for “Borz” who hasn’t lost a fight in his MMA yet. This will be Chimaev’s return to middleweight fight.
Costa on the other hand is coming off an akward fight against Luke Rockhold, after being absent from fighting for August 2022. If you like Costa’s chance to cause an upset, you can bet $100 on a straight win to potentially net $285 profit.
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Khamzat Chimaev vs Paulo Costa Prediction
Unblemished Record: Chimaev’s 12-0 record is a testament to his dominance in the cage. He knows how to win and is not familiar with losing. With a striking accuracy of 59%, Chimaev lands his shots with precision, which can be devastating when combined with his power.
Chimaev’s takedown average of 3.98 per 15 minutes, with a 57% accuracy, showcases his wrestling prowess. His ability to control the fight on the ground is a formidable weapon. His 100% takedown defense means that it’s incredibly difficult to take him down, forcing opponents to stand and trade.
As we saw against Gilbert Burns, Chimaev can tend to absorb more strikes once the fight goes past the first round. Chimaev absorbs 3.98 strikes per minute, which indicates that he can be hit, and against a heavy hitter like Costa, this could be a concern.
Costa’s 14-2 record is largely due to his explosive striking. He throws powerful punches and has a striking accuracy of 60%, which can lead to quick knockouts.
Takedown Defense: His 79% takedown defense could be crucial in keeping the fight standing, where he excels.
One weakness we could see arise from Costa is his gas tank, with average fight time of 10:40 suggests that he tends to fade as the fight progresses. Conditioning could be an issue, especially against an opponent like Chimaev.
Honestly, Chimaev’s path to victory lies wherever he wants – in utilizing his wrestling to control Costa on the ground, where he can minimize the Brazilian’s power. Or by standing and trading which could be a much messier route to victory. On the other hand, Costa needs to keep the fight standing and use his striking to test Chimaev’s chin early.
The advantage here could tilt slightly in favor of Chimaev due to his wrestling and takedown accuracy. If he can weather the early storm from Costa and secure takedowns, he has a path to victory through ground control and potentially submissions.
However, if Costa can keep the fight standing and avoid grappling exchanges, his striking power gives him a real chance to score a knockout, especially as the fight progresses and Chimaev’s gas tank may become a factor.
In the end, it’s a tough call, but based on the statistics and Chimaev’s well-rounded game, he might have a considerable edge.
Betting Pick: Chimaev by submission