- UFC Vegas 77 odds are in favor of Holly Holm as the betting favorite -180 against Mayra Bueno Silva +143.
- Can Holm turn back the clock to secure a victory at 41 and get one more shot at the bantamweight title?
- See our betting prediction & betting props for Holm vs Silva below.
Holly Holm #3 ranked bantamweight returns to the action the week after UFC 290, at UFC Fight Night 224 on July 15. Holm will be taking on #10 ranked Mayra Bueno Silva to headline this UFC Vegas 77 card. We review the latest odds & prop bets for Holm vs Silva and give a fight prediction below.
Holm vs Silva Odds
|Mayra Bueno Silva||+143|
The current betting line for the Holm vs. Silva matchup at UFC Fight Night 224 is tightly contested. Holm is considered the favorite with a slight advantage, listed at -180, while Silva is the underdog with odds of +143. These odds imply that Holm has a 64.2% chance of winning the fight.
If you decide to bet $180 on Holm and she emerges victorious, you would earn a profit of $100. On the other hand, if you place a $100 bet on Silva and he manages to pull off an upset, you would receive a net payout of $143. Use this TonyBet promo code to secure a $300 deposit match for fight night.
UFC Props for Holm vs Silva
Holm’s striking ability makes a TKO/KO victory plausible for her, with odds ranging from +500 to +525. Silva also has a chance of TKO/KO win, with odds ranging from +1000 to +1500.
The likelihood of submissions is lower, according to odds. Holm’s odds for winning by submission range from +1300 to +2200, while Silva’s range from +350 to +390. Regarding the fight duration, prop bets for going the distance or specific rounds are popular.
Holm is favored for a decision win (-175 to -210), while Silva is the underdog (+133 to +160). Although the odds suggest a higher chance of the fight going the distance, Silva’s odds indicate a decent chance of a stoppage. Over 1.5 rounds is favored (-910 to -800), but under 2.5 rounds also has favorable odds (+295 to +300).
Early finishes are possible, with Holm’s odds for rounds 1 or 2 ranging from +850 to +1600, and Silva’s ranging from +700 to +1400. Payouts increase for later rounds. In summary, Holm is the likely victor by decision or TKO/KO. A draw is unlikely. Silva has lower odds but a chance to win by TKO/KO or decision. The fight is likely to go the distance, but a stoppage is possible.
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Holly Holm vs Mayra Bueno Silva Prediction
Holly Holm, at 41 years old, has defied the odds and shown that age is just a number. In her most recent fight in March earlier this year, she proved that she is still at the top of her game by securing a dominant unanimous decision victory over her former training partner, Yana Santos.
Mayra Bueno Silva has been on a scorching streak since transitioning to the bantamweight division in early 2022. Since making the move up from Flyweight, she has been unstoppable, securing three consecutive victories. Notably, Bueno Silva finished her last two opponents, Stephanie Egger and Lina Landsberg, with impressive submissions—a devastating armbar and a slick kneebar, respectively.
Starting with average fight time, Holm has a considerable edge here, with her bouts lasting an average of 17 minutes and 29 seconds. In contrast, Silva’s fights tend to be shorter, averaging around 8 minutes and 50 seconds. This suggests that Holm may have the advantage in terms of endurance and conditioning, as she has demonstrated the ability to go the distance and maintain a high level of performance.
It’s worth noting that Holm holds a slight advantage in reach, with a 3-inch reach advantage of 69 inches compared to Silva’s 66 inches. This extended reach can be a crucial factor in determining the range and striking effectiveness of each fighter.
When it comes to striking, Silva has the statistical edge in terms of significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM), boasting an impressive 4.20 strikes landed per minute compared to Holm’s 3.17. Additionally, Silva exhibits superior striking accuracy, with a 54% accuracy rate compared to Holm’s 40%. These numbers highlight Silva’s ability to connect with precision and potentially inflict significant damage on her opponents.
However, striking is a two-way street, and we must also examine the fighters’ defensive capabilities. Holm’s defensive skills shine through, with a 56% striking defense rate, slightly higher than Silva’s 58%. This suggests that Holm is adept at avoiding her opponents’ strikes, potentially frustrating Silva’s striking game and minimizing the damage she can inflict.
In terms of grappling, the statistics reveal some interesting differences. Holm has a higher average of takedowns per 15 minutes, with 0.92 compared to Silva’s 0.38. However, Silva possesses a higher takedown accuracy at 50%, while Holm stands at 31%. This indicates that Silva may have an advantage when it comes to securing takedowns and potentially dictating the fight on the ground.
Nevertheless, Holm’s takedown defense cannot be overlooked, standing at an impressive 78%. This suggests that Silva may face challenges in taking Holm down and implementing her grappling skills effectively. On the other hand, Silva’s takedown defense rate is 67%, indicating that Holm might find some success in securing takedowns of her own.
Regarding submission averages, Holm holds a slight advantage, with 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes compared to Silva’s 1.5. However, it’s essential to note that statistics alone don’t always tell the complete story, as each fighter’s submission skills and submission defense might not be accurately reflected.
Now, let’s consider the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter and how they might impact the outcome of this fight. Holly Holm, a former UFC women’s bantamweight champion, is known for her elite striking skills and renowned head-kick knockout power.
Her experience and technical prowess make her a formidable opponent for anyone in the division. Holm’s southpaw stance can often catch opponents off guard, allowing her to land strikes from unique angles and exploit openings in her opponent’s defenses.
In terms of weaknesses, Holm has sometimes struggled against opponents with strong grappling abilities. While her takedown defense is solid, she has faced difficulties when taken to the ground by skilled grapplers. Additionally, Holm’s striking volume can sometimes be lower compared to opponents who push a relentless pace, potentially giving her opponents an opportunity to outwork her.
Mayra Bueno Silva possesses a well-rounded skill set with a focus on aggressive striking and a knack for submissions. Her last two victories were over Lina Lansberg and Stephanie Egger coming by way of submission. Silva’s ability to mix in takedowns and capitalize on her submission skills makes her a dangerous threat in all areas of the fight against Holm.
One potential weakness for Silva lies in her defense. While her striking defense is slightly better than Holm’s, it still leaves room for improvement. Silva has shown a tendency to absorb a significant number of strikes, which could be detrimental against an accurate and powerful striker like Holm. Additionally, Silva’s grappling game, although effective, could be neutralized by Holm’s strong takedown defense.
Holm’s striking prowess and experience give her an advantage in terms of technique and fight IQ. She will likely look to utilize her southpaw stance to disrupt Silva’s rhythm and exploit openings with her powerful strikes.
Meanwhile, Silva’s aggressive style and submission threat could pose challenges for Holm. If Silva can effectively close the distance, secure takedowns, and take the fight to the ground, she may have an opportunity to capitalize on her superior submission average and potentially secure a submission victory.
While both fighters possess the skills to win, my prediction leans slightly in favor of Holly Holm, who has proven time and again that she can rise to the occasion and deliver in high-pressure situations.
Betting Pick: Holm
UFC Vegas 77 Card
- 135lbs.: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
- 170lbs.: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Vicente Luque
- 265lbs.: Walt Harris vs. Josh Parisian
- 125lbs.: Azat Maksum vs. Tyson Nam
- 135lbs.: Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Ailín Pérez
- 145lbs.: Norma Dumont vs. Chelsea Chandler