- Odds: Jared Cannonier -240 favorite vs Kelvin Gastelum +195 underdog.
- Pick: Cannonier by TKO.
UFC on ESPN 29 will be headlined by two knockout artists, Cannonier and Gastelum will go head to head on August 21 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Gastelum is a replacement for Paulo Costa who was originally scheduled to fight Cannonier. A win here for either fighter would be a step in the right direction to return to title contention.
Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum Odds
According to the latest Cannonier vs Gastelum odds, the “Killa Gorilla” is a solid betting favorite to defeat Gastelum. At opening odds of -240 on FanDuel, (Bet $240, win $100). Gastelum being the significant underdog means a $100 wager would net $195 on the chance of an upset.
Betting Value on Cannonier or Gastelum
Back in 2017 Kelvin Gastelum scored a KO win over former middleweight champion Michael Bisping to earn performance of the night. Gastelum was the betting favorite in that fight, due to the run he was on and short-turnaround for Bisping from fighting GSP.
Since then we’ve seen Gastelum pick up a split decision win over Ronaldo Souza then challange Israel Adesanya for the interim middleweight title at UFC 236. This was by far the peak of Gastelum’s fighting ability to date, going to toe to toe against Adesanya and just edging out a loss by decision. From that loss Gastelum went on to lose to Till and Hermanson, then returning in 2021 to pick up a decision win over Ian Heinisch, then lose in a dominant performance by Robert Whittaker in his last fight.
It’s been a long road for Southpaw who won the Ultimate Fighter back in 2013. Between not weight-cutting issues and not finding the right division to excel in. He’s shown that he can hang in there with the best, but perhaps hasn’t evolved as much in the past five years. Relying on the overhand right and scrambles to damage his opponents, has made Gastelum a dangerous yet readable fighter. Overall betting on Gastelum is a risky move that could prove to payoff at UFC on ESPN 29.
Gastelum needs to get into predator mode and get into Cannonier’s face early in the fight. He has excellent foot-work and head movement, that he will need to utilize against a heavy hitter like Cannonier.
“I want to go out there and put him away quick, fast, and in a hurry,” Cannonier added. “Wherever the fight goes is where I intend to finish the fight.
“I’m just ready to go in there and throw some hands. That’s what’s going to happen. No matter what happens, no matter where it goes… I assume he’s going to have to wrestle. Because when the fire starts coming in, what else can you do? The best option for you is to wrestle.”
On the other hand you hand, Jared Cannonier who will try to keep this fight on the feet. Cannonier has only landed 1 takedown in his 11 UFC fights. If Gastelum try’s to wrestle he look to land his slick upper-cuts and damage the shorter fighter. Cannonier has a six-inch reach advantage in this fight, I expect the “Killa Gorilla” to keep his distance and look for some counter striking opportunities and inside leg kicks.
Since moving down to middleweight Cannonier is 3-1, with his only loss to Whittaker. He is a durable opponent and his power has translated at the lower weight class. I expect him to fight calculated and look for the finish in the third round.
Betting Pick: Cannonier by TKO.