- We give the latest fight prediction for Pacquiao vs Spence Jr.
- One of the best bets for this upcoming blockbuster fight is Spence to win by decision.
- Manny Pacquiao will take on undefeated Errol Spence Jr for the WBC and IBF welterweight titles.
The biggest fight of the year will top of summer 2021, with Manny Pacquiao vs Errol Spence Jr going toe to toe on August 21, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This fight is expected to be highly entertaining with Spence Jr in his prime and Pacquiao making one more run to be known as one of the greatest of all time.
Pacquiao vs Spence Prediction
Manny Pacquiao is recognized as only fighter to be champion across four different decades, while picking up belts across eight different divisions. Pacquiao has little to lose from fighting Errol Spence Jr and has alot to gain. He’s mastered the art of boxing for over 28 years and while he’s out of his prime, he’s still managed to hang in there with the most relevant world champions. Adrien Broner lost decisively and Keith Thurman felt the speed and power of PacMan’s vigorous conditioning even while in his 40’s. Now he eyes up a boxer at the top of the game Errol Spence Jr.
“You just can’t write off Pacquiao. People said the same both time and as a more methodical guy, very steady. Manny is very strong. Pacquiao is obviously explosive and fast and has a bouncing rhythm. It could be a classic, could be a war.” – said Andy Lee.
In 2019 Spence stopped Mikey Garica in his rise to the top of the boxing , six months later he took on Shawn Porter. Which turned out to be a classic fight and one that show’s us Spence has the grit to hang in their with young guns or legends like Pacquiao.
In terms of betting analysis of how Pacquiao can defeat Spence, his best shot is to try outwork the younger champion and select counter-strikes to catch Spence when he’s in range. If this fight stays in the pocket I would give the advantage to Pacquiao. However Spence won’t want to to play that game for the entire fight. Spence has a perfect record of 27-0 with KO percentage of 78%. Comparing that to a (62–7–2) record for Pacquiao with a KO ratio of 55%.
Expect Spence to keep his distance using his excellent foot-work and a five-inch reach advantage to make Manny cover most of the distance. Given that Pacquiao is a durable fighter, Spence should take advantage of the body shots instead of focusing too much on head strikes. This will slow Pacquiao down as the fights enter the later rounds.
Pacquiao is now 42 years of age and a future hall of famer, there is a significant age gap of 11 years. Which may not be apparent in the early rounds of the fight, but I expect this to be Pacquiao’s ‘Last Dance’ where he will go out on his shield to the next generation of Spence Jr.
Betting Pick: Spence by decision.
Pacquiao vs Spence Betting Props
|Fight goes to decision||-200|
|Fight doesn’t go to decision||+150|
|Spence wins by TKO/KO||+240|
|Pacquiao wins by TKO/KO||+600|
|Spence wins by decision||+120|
|Pacquiao wins by decison||+350|
|Fight is a draw||+1800|
|Spence wins in round 1-3||+1600|
|Pacquiao wins in round 1-3||+3300|
|Spence wins in round 4-6||+850|
|Pacquiao wins in round 4-6||+1800|
|Spence wins in round 7-9||+750|
|Pacquiao wins in round 7-9||+1600|
|Spence wins in round 10-12||+1200|
|Pacquiao wins in round 10-12||+2500|
|Fight ends in round 12||+2800|
Best Bets for Pacquiao vs Spence
We all know by now that Manny Pacquiao is the betting underdog going into this fight. For a straight moneyline bet Pacquiao is averaging -200, which tells us the betting line has shortened between these two legends. Thats due to a combination of public money be wagered early on and training footage and comments coming out of Pacquiao’s camp. Let’s see what the best valued bets for Pacquiao vs Spence are.
Fight goes to decision: -200
A bet that doesn’t mean you have to pick a fighter is always nice. At -200, you can bet $200 to win $100. Pacquiao and Spence have both went to the decision in their last few fights, so this fight could play out the same way.
Spence wins by decision: +120
While Spence has the ability to finish Pacquiao, I see PacMan’s durability keeping him in this fight. In order to win this fight Spence will need to keep Pacquiao on the outside limiting the probability of him finishing his opponent, thus the odds favor Spence to win by decision.
Pacquiao wins by TKO/KO: +600
At 6/1 Pacquiao to defeat Spence by TKO/KO should not be overlooked! That means a $100 wager could net you $600 on the chance of his upset. For more of the latest boxing odds, news and fight predictions – check out our boxing page.
Comment below, on who you think will win this war and how?