- UFC 294 odds have Islam Makhachev -375 in his rematch against Charles Oliveira +270
- What can Oliveira do differently against Makhachev in this rematch? We find out.
- See the best UFC 294 betting props for Makhachev vs Oliveira 2.
One of the biggest rematches in UFC lightweight’s recent history is upon us. Charles Oliveira will get his chance for redemption against the seemingly unstoppable Islam Makhachev. The rematch is set for UFC 294 on October 21, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Lets get right into the latest odds and fight prediction for Makhachev vs Oliveira 2.
Makhachev vs Oliveira 2 Odds
Fighter | Odds |
Islam Makhachev | -375 |
Charles Oliveira | +270 |
The reigning UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev opens as a -375 favorite with a 78.9% win probability. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Charles Oliveira has a 27% chance of victory, with a $100 wager netting $270 profit on the upset here.
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Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira Rematch Prediction
Makhachev won a dominant first fight against Charles Oliveira, submitting the Brazalinan in the second round at UFC 280 to cement his spot as new lightweight champion. What makes this Oliveira stand a chance this time around many wonder.
Well for one Oliveira is no stranger to losing, prior to his 11- straight wins, he had 7 losses out of 16 UFC fights. “Do Bronx” is the epmitimay of an evolving fighter and one that really gaining his rhythm later in his UFC career from 2018 onwards.
Oliveira also bounced back from his loss to Makhachev with a first round KO win over Beneil Dariush. Extending his UFC record to 20 finishes inside the octagon.
Makhachev on the other hand made his first title defence against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 284. It was a lightweight vs feathweight champion for the 155-pound strap, that ended up being a very closely fought fight. Makhachev edged out the victory over the Australian champ – which would clearly be Makhachev’s biggest win to date.
The remath between Makhachev and Oliveira brings up some intresting questions. How will Oliveira deal with Makhachev’s grappling again? Will Makhachev be willing to exchange more on the feet? Even in their first encounter Makhachev’s striking caught Oliveira off guard.
When it comes to striking, Charles Oliveira holds a slight advantage in terms of significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM), with a rate of 3.54 compared to Makhachev’s 2.35. Oliveira’s striking accuracy, however, stands at 53%, while Makhachev boasts an impressive 59% accuracy.
Oliveira tends to absorb more strikes per minute (SApM) at 3.19, which could be a chink in his armor against Makhachev’s defensive prowess. Makhachev absorbs only 1.27 strikes per minute and has a higher striking defense at 61% as compared to Oliveira’s 51%.
In the realm of grappling, Makhachev truly shines. He averages 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and displays remarkable accuracy at 62%. What’s more, his takedown defense is exceptional at 90%, making him a difficult target to take down.
On the other hand, Oliveira’s takedown accuracy sits at 40%, and his takedown defense is at 55%. Makhachev’s average of 1.1 submissions per 15 minutes suggests a consistent threat on the ground, but Oliveira’s astonishing 2.7 submissions per 15 minutes demand respect.
Makhachev’s strength lies in his control of the fight. His grappling skills, coupled with his outstanding takedown defense, allow him to dictate the pace and location of the battle. He’s a suffocating force on the mat, making it incredibly tough for opponents to escape his web once they’re tangled in it. His striking has evolved steadily, and his accuracy could be a deciding factor if he chooses to keep the fight standing.
Oliveira’s primary strength is his submission game. His 2.7 submissions per 15 minutes illustrate his unparalleled proficiency on the ground. If the fight goes to the mat, Oliveira can find opportunities to lock in a fight-ending submission. His striking is dynamic and varied, with a higher SLpM, but his accuracy and defensive vulnerabilities might come into play against Makhachev’s calculated approach.
For Makhachev, utilizing his grappling expertise and superior takedown defense will be key. He should aim to keep Oliveira guessing with his striking and then transition to his bread and butter – controlling the fight on the ground. Avoiding Oliveira’s submission traps is paramount, but if he can maintain top control, he could secure a unanimous decision or even a late-round finish.
Oliveira needs to mix up his game plan. Engaging in a striking battle could be risky due to Makhachev’s accuracy and defensive prowess. Oliveira should focus on using his striking to set up takedowns and then capitalize on his submission wizardry. If he can drag Makhachev into deep waters and force a grappling exchange, he might find an opportunity to lock in a fight-ending submission.
Expect Makhachev to showcase his dominant grappling and takedown defense to neutralize Oliveira’s submission threats. While Oliveira’s submission game is a constant danger, Makhachev’s ability to control the fight’s tempo could be the game-changer.
I don’t see this fight going the distance again with two elite finishers. Makhachev to win and under 2.5 rounds is my prediction for this fight.
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