- UFC 289 odds have Amanda Nunes as a -380 favorite against Irene Aldana at +300.
- Can Aldana shock the world with a win over Nunes at UFC 289?
- See our prediction and the best prop bets for Nunes vs Aldana UFC 289.
The UFC returns to Canada on June 10, Headlining the UFC Vancouver card is Amanda Nunes defending her bantamweight strap against no.5 ranked bantamweight Irene Aldana.
Initially, Julianna Pena was set to face Nunes in a trilogy, but an injury forced Pena to pull out of the fight with Aldana stepping in. Let’s see the latest Nunes vs Aldana betting odds and best bets for UFC 289.
Nunes vs Aldana Odds
The latest UFC 289 betting odds have Amanda Nunes with a strong implied win probability of 79/.1%, Betting $380 on Nunes at UFC 289 would be a bold move that can yield great rewards. Although there is a higher risk involved due to the larger wager amount for a relatively smaller profit, the odds are justified as Amanda Nunes is expected to showcase her unmatched skills as the bantamweight champion.
On the flip side, if you opt for Irene Aldana, you can enjoy a lower risk while opening the door to a higher potential profit. With the chance of netting $300 from a $100 wager if Aldana emerges victorious.
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Nunes vs Aldana Props Bets
- Alanda wins by decision: +700
- Nunes wins by decison: +300
- Alanda wins by KO/TKO: +650
- Nunes wins by KO/TKO: +100
- Alanda wins by submission: +1400
- Nunes wins by submission: +500
- Over 1½ rounds: -250
- Under 1½ rounds: +180
The odds for Alanda winning by a decision are +700. This means if you bet $100 on Alanda to win by decision and she does, you would earn a profit of $700. This is considered a long shot, as the implied win probability for this outcome is lower compared to the others.
Nunes winning by decision is +300. If you place a $100 bet on Nunes to win by decision and she succeeds, you would make a profit of $300. This bet has a higher implied win probability than Alanda winning by decision.
For Alanda winning by KO/TKO are +650. If you wagered $100 on Alanda to win by KO/TKO and she accomplishes it, you would receive a profit of $650. This is considered a relatively high payout for this outcome.
Nunes winning by KO/TKO are +100. Betting $100 on Nunes to win by KO/TKO and her achieving that would result in a profit of $100. This is a lower payout compared to Alanda winning by KO/TKO.
The odds for Alanda winning by submission are +1400. If you bet $100 on Alanda to win by submission and she manages to do so, you would earn a profit of $1400. This is the biggest long shot among the options.
Nunes winning by submission are +500. Placing a $100 bet on Nunes to win by submission and her securing a submission victory would yield a profit of $500.
In summary, the best bets in terms of implied win probability and potential profit would be Nunes winning by KO/TKO (+100) and Nunes winning by decision (+300). The biggest long shots would be Alanda winning by submission (+1400) and Alanda winning by decision (+700).
These odds indicate the likelihood of the fight lasting over or under 1½ rounds. The negative odds (-250) suggest that the sportsbook expects the fight to last over 1½ rounds, while the positive odds (+180) indicate that the fight ending before 1½ rounds is less likely.
Irene Aldana has had an eventful run in her recent fights. In her most recent bout at UFC 279, she impressively knocked out Macy Chiasson with a body upkick in the third round, earning her the Performance of the Night bonus. Prior to that, she scored a TKO victory over Yana Kunitskaya in the first round of their catchweight clash at UFC 264, although she missed weight for that fight.
Amanda Nunes has had an eventful series of fights in her recent record. In her most recent bout at UFC 277, she secured a unanimous decision victory against Julianna Peña, winning the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. However, in a previous encounter at UFC 269, Nunes experienced a setback as she lost the same title to Peña via a second-round rear-naked choke submission.
Nunes has also showcased her dominance in defending her titles. At UFC 259, she successfully defended the UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship by submitting Megan Anderson with a reverse triangle armbar in the first round.
Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana Prediction
Amanda Nunes holds a significant advantage in terms of striking power and efficiency. With a higher strike accuracy of 51% and landing 4.40 significant strikes per minute (SLpM), Nunes has shown her ability to connect with precision and effectiveness.
Her striking defense is also notable at 55%, showcasing her ability to avoid taking unnecessary damage. Nunes possesses strong knockout power and has finished several opponents with her striking prowess.
When it comes to striking output Irene Aldana has a historical advantage, landing an impressive 5.39 SLpM. However, her striking accuracy is comparatively lower at 39%. Aldana’s striking style involves a high volume of strikes, which can overwhelm her opponents. It’s worth noting that Aldana tends to absorb more strikes, averaging 5.71 significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), indicating a potential vulnerability in her defense.
In terms of grappling, Amanda Nunes has a clear advantage. She has a higher takedown average of 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes, showcasing her ability to control the fight on the ground. Nunes also boasts a solid takedown accuracy of 56%. Her takedown defense is notable as well, with an 82% success rate, making it challenging for her opponents to take her down.
Aldana, on the other hand, has a lower average of takedowns at 0.20 per 15 minutes, indicating a preference for striking rather than grappling exchanges. While her takedown accuracy is 50%, her takedown defense is also commendable at 81%, suggesting that she has the ability to prevent opponents from taking her down and can effectively defend against grappling attacks.
Given Nunes’s championship-level experience, she excels in both striking and grappling aspects. Irene Aldana’s key strength lies in her striking volume. With a high output of strikes, she can overwhelm opponents with her relentless attacks. Aldana’s striking style enables her to keep the fight standing and control the pace.
On paper Nunes possesses a well-rounded skill set with significant power in both striking and grappling. Irene Aldana’s strengths lie in her striking volume and ability to maintain distance. We saw Nunes come underprepared for Pena in the first fight, although in the second fight, she redeemed herself. There still seems to be a decline in sharpness from the champ, giving Aldana the perfect opportunity to seize the moment.
Going to side with the underdog here Aldana, using her patience to pick the right shot to stop Nunes and win by TKO.