- Opening UFC Odds are favoring Paddy Pimblett -290 to defeat Rodrigo Vargas as a +235 underdog.
- Prediction: Paddy Pimblett by KO/TKO.
Paddy “The Baddy” returns to the octagon on March 19 at UFC London, to take on Mexico’s Rodrigo “Kazula” Vargas. While Paddy prepares for the ‘best walkout ever’ against Vargas, is he overlooking his opponent already? Check out the latest UFC London odds here.
The oddsmakers certainly like his chances of picking up his second UFC win, let’s find out the latest UFC odds and early fight prediction below.
Pimblett vs Vargas Odds
Paddy Pimblett is a the firm favorite -290 to defeat Rodrigo Vargas +235. “The Baddy” has an implied win probability of 74.36% for getting his second UFC win under his belt. Vargas is 1-2 since entering the UFC with his only UFC win coming over Zhu Rong at UFC 261.
check out some of the top UFC betting sites, prior to betting on Pimblett vs Vargas.
Betting on Pimblett vs Vargas
“The Baddy” made his UFC debut against Luigi Vendramini in Sept 2021. He’s been a fan favorite and bookmakers are hot on him too. Paddy opened as a slight favorite for his UFC debut -140 to Vendramini. Paddy has proved his durability over the years, and has never been finished in his MMA career. He a wicked ground game with improved striking in recent years.
Paddy will have a two reach advantage over Vargas and lands on average 10.64 significant strikes per minute, compared to Vargas’s at 3.85. While Paddy lands at much more volume than Vargas, he also absorbs much more which he will need to be more defensive minded against a hard hitter like Vargas.
Vargas dropped his first two UFC bouts with his MMA record at 12-4. One of his UFC defeats was due to an illegal knee, that led to him being disqualified. “Kazula” fights out of a southpaw stance which could cause Pimblett some problems while the fight is standing. If Paddy finds himself in trouble he has the ability to take this fight to the ground.
Overall, I can see Paddy entering this bout as a 1/3 favorite. He has better cardio than Vargas and is the more well-rounded fighter. There’s no question Vargas will be up against it with the partisan London crowd baying for blood and Pimblett’s aggressive style to deal with.
Pick: Pimblett by KO/TKO.
UFC London is in the books
Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall to headline UFC’s return to London in March. For the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19, the UFC is back in London. In addition to those big domestic names, Jack Shore vs. Timur Valiev and Muhammad Mokaev vs. Cody Durden are rumoured to be in the works. Stay in the know with Betting Insider Journal’s MMA updates in the lead up to fight night.
Pimblett Waits for New Contact for Big Opponents
Speculation regarding if Paddy’s next opponent will be perceived as a top-ten ranked fighter has arisen since his remarkable debut in the Octagon. Some believe there may be an escalating rivalry with Cowboy Cerrone or Tony Ferguson, while others gauge his career to be fast-tracked up the 155-pound ranks once a bigger contact is signed.
“Fuck that. I’m not fighting a top-10 on the money I’m on, lad… Nick Peet was saying he’d like to see me against Tony Ferguson. And, lad, I’d like to see me against Tony Ferguson, but not on the contract I’m on now. Fuck that. Get paid that money to fight Tony Ferguson, lad. Yeah, he’s still one of the best 155ers in the world, lad. I want fucking six figures, lad, then I’m fighting him” (h/t Sportskeeda).
Now that the Tony & Cerrone are on a losing skid, they might see some upside in challenging Paddy and welcome him to the top-ten at 155-pounds. It would certainly be a unique clash of charismatic and exciting personalities clash down the line.