- The latest UFC 295 odds have Alex Pereira -150 against Jiri Prochazka +125 to decide who’s the king at light heavyweight.
- After more than 18 months away from the sport due to injury, can Prochazka make a triumphant return with a victory and a statement to his name?
- See the best bets for Prochazka vs Pereira with a fight prediction below.
Jiri Prochazka will step back into the Octogan at UFC 295 to cement his legacy as the light heavyweight champion against Alex Pereira. Prochazka had to vacate the title due to a shoulder injury in late 2022.
The vacant 205-pound strap will be on the line, in this co-main clash that’s set for Saturday, November 11 at Madison Square Garden, New York.
Meanwhile, Pereira made his light heavyweight debut in UFC 291 earlier this summer with a split decision win over Jan Błachowicz. Will this fight go the distance? Probably not, so let’s break down the betting props and latest odds for Pereira vs Prochazka.
Pereira vs Prochazka Odds
Alex Pereira opens as the betting favorite for the vacant light heavyweight title bout at UFC 295. You can bet $150 on “Poatan” at these current odds to net $100 profit. The underdog here is Prochazka, who had to vacate the title last year. Jiri has odds of +125, giving him an implied win probability of 44.4% according to online sportsbooks.
Once the prop bets are released for this UFC 295 co-main event, we will review them right here!
Pereira vs Prochazka Prop Bets
Let’s break down the prop bets for the Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka fight.
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds:
Implied Probability: Over 1.5 rounds is around 60-65% likely.
Likelihood: Given the fighters’ styles, a quick finish is less expected, making the over more probable.
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds:
Implied Probability: Over 2.5 rounds is approximately 40-45% likely.
Likelihood: The odds lean towards a shorter fight, possibly ending before the 2.5-round mark.
Over/Under 3.5 Rounds:
Implied Probability: Over 3.5 rounds has a 30-35% chance.
Likelihood: This suggests a higher probability of an earlier finish.
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds:
Implied Probability: Over 4.5 rounds is less likely, around 20-25%.
Likelihood: Points towards an expectation of a finish before the championship rounds.
Method of Victory:
Pereira Wins by TKO/KO:
Implied Probability: Around 45-50%.
Likelihood: Given Pereira’s striking prowess, this is a plausible outcome.
Prochazka Wins by TKO/KO:
Implied Probability: Approximately 35-40%.
Likelihood: Prochazka’s knockout power makes this a credible possibility.
Pereira Wins by Submission:
Implied Probability: Highly unlikely, around 5-10%.
Likelihood: Pereira is known for striking, so a submission is an unexpected outcome.
Prochazka Wins by Submission:
Implied Probability: Low, around 10-15%.
Likelihood: Similar to Pereira, Prochazka’s strength lies in striking, making a submission less likely.
Other Notable Prop Bets:
Fight Ends in Round 1:
Implied Probability: Around 30-35%.
Likelihood: Given the fighters’ styles, an early finish is conceivable.
Either Fighter Wins by TKO/KO:
Implied Probability: High, around 75-80%.
Likelihood: Both fighters are known for their knockout ability, making this highly probable.
Either Fighter Wins by Submission:
Implied Probability: Lower, around 20-25%.
Likelihood: Both fighters are primarily strikers, so a submission is less expected.
The odds suggest a high likelihood of a finish, with TKO/KO being the most probable outcome. While both fighters are known for their striking, the chances of a submission victory are relatively low. The prop bets emphasize the expectation of an exciting, potentially early finish in this matchup.
Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka Betting Prediction
Alex Pereira bounced back from losing to Israel Adesanya by moving up to light heavyweight and defeating the former champ Jan Błachowicz. Does Pereira have what it takes to stop the unpredictability of Jiri Prochazka?
Pereira has proven to be a formidable force. After securing two KO victories over Sean Strickland and then Israel Adesanya, “Potan” is now making a name for himself in the 205-pound division. His striking game is where he truly shines, landing an impressive 5.11 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 62%. That’s elite-level precision.
However, his defense, standing at 51%, suggests he’s not invincible, which Adesanya exploited in their last battle. Pereira’s takedown defense is at 70%, which is solid, but he’ll want to avoid grappling exchanges with Prochazka, who’s no slouch on the ground.
Prochazka has become a cult hero in a short span, similar to his rival at UFC 295. He throws down an astounding 5.77 significant strikes per minute, although his striking accuracy is slightly lower at 55%.
However, Prochazka’s striking power is off the charts, and he can finish a fight in the blink of an eye. On the downside, his defense is a concern at 40%. If he can’t tighten up his guard, Pereira might exploit this weakness.
Pereira’s best bet is to leverage his striking precision and ability to control the distance. With that 62% striking accuracy, he can pick Prochazka apart from the outside, utilizing jabs and leg kicks to keep him at bay.
Pereira should also focus on his takedown defense, ensuring he doesn’t get dragged into a ground battle he can’t win. His key to success is keeping the fight standing and showcasing his superior striking skills.
For Prochazka, the game plan is relatively straightforward. He needs to rely on his diverse range of striking and unpredictability to close the distance and unleash his furious combinations.
If he can land a big shot, he might just put Pereira to sleep. However, he should also be cautious of Pereira’s striking accuracy, and work on his own defense to avoid taking unnecessary damage. If Prochazka can exploit that 40% defense rate of Pereira, he might find an opening to finish the fight.
In this matchup, Jiri Prochazka holds a slight advantage due to his striking power and aggressive style. If he can weather Pereira’s precision strikes and push the pace, he’s more likely to secure a victory. But don’t count Alex Pereira out; he has the tools to control the fight if he can keep it standing.
Betting Pick: Prochazka