- The latest UFC 295 odds have Sergei Pavlovich as a slight +110 underdog against Tom Aspinall -130.
- This fight should be explosive and will likely not go the distance, betting under 2.5 rounds anyone?
- We cover the latest prop bets and fight predictions for Pavlovich vs Aspinall.
The destiny of the UFC’s heavyweight division hangs in the balance on November 11th at UFC 295, a highly anticipated event set to light up New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately, the much-anticipated clash between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic won’t happen due to Jones sustaining an injury during training.
Pavlovich has been carving an indomitable path in the UFC, boasting an incredible streak of six consecutive first-round finishes. Meanwhile, Aspinall has been equally remarkable, taking on formidable heavyweights and securing multiple wins through both knockout and submission. Let’s delve into the latest betting odds for this thrilling heavyweight showdown at UFC 295.
Pavlovich vs Aspinall Odds
The initial betting odds for Pavlovich versus Aspinall have shown a varied picture, with several betting platforms favoring Aspinall while others have Pavlovich as the preferred contender.
At present, DraftKings is positioning Aspinall as the early favorite with odds at -130, edging out the Russian sensation Pavlovich. For those interested, there’s an opportunity to bet on Pavlovich with these odds, potentially winning $110 from a $100 wager if he emerges victorious at UFC 295.
Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prop Bets
Looking at the “Over/Under” bets for rounds, the implied probability suggests that the oddsmakers anticipate a longer fight. The odds for “Under 1.5 rounds” are steep, indicating a higher likelihood that the fight will last beyond the first round. However, the odds become more favorable for the “Under” as the rounds progress, reaching their peak at -1000 for “Under 3.5 rounds,” suggesting a strong belief that the fight may not go the distance.
Both fighters have positive odds for winning by TKO/KO, with Pavlovich having slightly more favorable odds at +120 compared to Aspinall’s +175. This implies that the oddsmakers see Pavlovich as having a better chance of securing a victory via knockout.
Pavlovich’s odds of winning by submission are higher than Aspinall’s, indicating that if the fight were to end on the ground, Pavlovich might have the advantage. However, these outcomes are considered less likely, as reflected in the long odds.
In terms of winning inside the distance, Pavlovich has a slight edge at +110, suggesting a higher probability of finishing the fight early. Conversely, Aspinall has negative odds, implying a higher likelihood of the fight going the distance.
When it comes to a decision, both fighters have long odds, reflecting the belief that the fight is more likely to end before the judges’ scorecards come into play.
The odds for specific rounds and methods of victory provide insights into how the bookmakers perceive the fight unfolding. For example, Pavlovich is given higher odds for a first-round victory, while Aspinall’s odds for winning in rounds 1 or 2 are more evenly matched.
The latest props the likelihood of a knockout victory, especially in the early rounds, appears to be higher for both fighters, but Pavlovich is given a slightly better chance in this regard.
Betting Prediction for Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall
The UFC’s hand was forced, prompting the organization to arrange an interim heavyweight title fight. This upcoming bout will showcase Tom Aspinall facing off against Sergei Pavlovich.
Both fighters stand out among the most exhilarating 265-pounders on the UFC roster. Notably, Aspinall made a remarkable comeback from a severe knee injury, displaying his prowess by achieving a first-round TKO victory over Marcin Tybura.
Sergei Pavlovich suffered his only MMA defeat against the renowned heavyweight figure, Alistair Overeem. This loss revealed Pavlovich’s relative inexperience as a grappler, with Overeem securing a takedown and claiming a first-round TKO victory.
Although there’s a likelihood of Pavlovich’s improvement, notably through training alongside Daniel Cormier, the extent of his progress remains uncertain which is clearly a step behind the more well-roundness fighting style of his opponent Tom Aspinall.
Let’s dive into their tale of the tape to understand where each fighter might gain the upper hand. Pavlovich, with an impressive 18-1-0 record, brings his Southpaw stance. His striking game is nothing short of impressive, landing 8.72 strikes per minute but absorbing 4.33. While he showcases a solid defense at 57%, his grappling game shows room for improvement, averaging no takedowns and submissions per 15 minutes.
On the other side, we’ve got Tom Aspinall, holding a record of 13-3-0. Aspinall fights from an orthodox stance and boasts remarkable accuracy in his striking, landing 7.65 strikes per minute with an exceptional 66% accuracy.
His defense stands out at 65%, allowing him to absorb fewer strikes at 2.90 per minute. Aspinall’s grappling skills are particularly noteworthy with a takedown accuracy of 100% and an average of 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, paired with a submission average of 1.9.
Pavlovich’s strengths lie in his striking volume, although he tends to absorb more strikes. His defense could be an area of concern against Aspinall, who not only lands strikes with high accuracy but also defends against strikes exceptionally well.
Aspinall’s ground game stands out significantly, holding a strong advantage in takedowns and submission averages, compared to Pavlovich’s lack of statistical prominence in grappling.
The fight could unfold in various ways. Pavlovich will aim to impose his striking volume, hoping to overwhelm Aspinall and find opportunities to capitalize. His best chance might be to keep the fight standing and work to outstrike Aspinall.
Aspinall, on the other hand, may look to utilize his striking accuracy and defense, perhaps looking for strategic takedowns to capitalize on his superior ground game. His high takedown accuracy could mean trouble for Pavlovich, particularly if the fight goes to the ground.
Pavlovich needs to be cautious not to get caught in Aspinall’s takedown attempts, as his ground game might not match up to Aspinall’s expertise. However, if Pavlovich manages to keep the fight standing and pressures Aspinall, he might find openings for his striking.
The technical skillset advantage seems to lean slightly toward Aspinall, given his well-rounded skills in both striking accuracy and grappling, particularly with his stellar ground game. Yet, in the world of UFC, surprises are commonplace. I expected to see the intensity of Pavlovich’s striking overwhelm Aspinall, maybe not in the first round but by the second round to stop him.
Betting Pick: Pavlovich by KO Under 2.5 Rounds