- Opening UFC 281 odds have Dustin Poirier as the betting favorite -215 to defeat Michael Chandler +164.
- UFC 281 is scheduled for Madison Square Garden, New York on Saturday, November 12.
One of the latest UFC grudge matches in the lightweight division will be settled at UFC 281. Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler are two elite top-five 155-pound fighters. This can be seen as a No. 1 title contender bout for the winner of Oliveira vs Makhachev. We review the latest Poirier vs Chandler odds with an early fight prediction below.
Poirier vs Chandler Odds
Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier has an average implied win probability of 68.2% for getting his hand raised at UFC 281. You can bet $215 on Poirier with these early UFC 281 odds to net $215. The underdog here Michael Chandler opens as a modest underdog, betting $100 to net $164 on “Iron” Mike.
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UFC 281 Betting Pick for Poirier vs Chandler
Chandler vs Poirier is a huge match-up for the lightweight division and is a potential title eliminator. Poirier (28-7), will return to action at UFC 281 after taking the majority of 2022 off. His lightweight title bout against Charles Oliveira ended in “The Diamond” getting submitted in the 2nd round. This was Poirier’s first loss since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2019. After the Khabib loss, Poirier went on to defeat Dan Hooker in a clinical performance. Then defeated Conor McGregor back-to-back over the course of 2021.
Dustin will have the edge here when it comes to boxing. Technically he’s one of the soundest boxers in the UFC. While Chandler does have incredible power in his striking, he tends to overexert himself which could leave him vulnerable to being countered. In a similar way to how Poirier managed to catch Conor McGregor in their rematch at UFC 257.
Chandler (23-7), is 2-2 since entering the UFC in 2021. The explosive wrestler-striker was one of the most dominant Bellator fighters and has proven his elite caliber status with wins over Dan Hooker and Tony Ferguson since joining the UFC. He’s only been stopped by one UFC fighter and that’s the current champ Charles Oliveira, and with a win here over Poirier this sets up a potential rematch against “Do Bronx” perfectly.
After the Oliveira loss, “Iron” Mike fought three hard rounds in an instant UFC classic against Justin Gaethje. When comparing recent fights Chandler has had, I looked at how Gaethje had the upper hand here and what Poirier could do given if the fight plays out in his favor.
If this fight is just a three-round bout it massively favors Chandler compared to a five-round war, in which Poirier tends to fight better in. There are still many questions about the future of Dustin Poirier at 155-pounds, at 33 years of age he’s approaching veteran status and has. Could the battles be finally catching up with “The Diamond” or will he shine at UFC 281?
I think once this fight goes past 2.5 rounds it’s clearly in Poirier’s favor, I’m expecting typical Michael Chandler explosiveness in the first round that won’t phase the expertise of Poirier.
Betting Pick: Dustin Poirier -155