- Opening UFC betting odds are in favor of Petr Yan -275 to Merab Dvalishvili +210 underdog.
- Yan has significantly more striking volume than Merab. While Dvalishvili lands over 6 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- I give my prediction for Yan vs Dvalishvili with the best bets for UFC Fight Night 211.
UFC Fight Night 211 is set for March 11, 2023, at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Paradise, Nevada. Headlined by Yan vs Dvalishvili are set for a five-round bantamweight bout. We review the latest odds for Yan vs Dvalishvili with a betting pick to follow.
Yan vs Dvalishvili Odds
Petr Yan is currently a -275 favorite to defeat Merab Dvalishvili as a +210 underdog. That’s a 73% implied win probability for “No Mercy” who is coming off a split decision loss to Sean O’Malley. For Dvalishvili, there is real betting value, bet $100 to net $210 “The Machine” is currently on an eight-fight winning streak.
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Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Prediction
The former bantamweight champion Petr Yan returns to action. Coming off two back-to-back losses, both of these fights were close; especially against O’Malley with 26 media scores submitted to MMA Decisions scored the bout for Yan. Yan has notable wins over Urijah Faber, Jose Aldo, and Cory Sandhagen
Dvalishvili has been in the UFC 2017, suffering two consecutive losses was a setback for the Georgian fight who trains with the Serra-Longo fight team in Long Island, New York.
Merab has the most amount of decision wins in UFC bantamweight history at 6. Not only is he capable of outworking his opponents but he’s also coming off a TKO win over Marlon Moraes and his last win was sending Jose Aldo into retirement after a decisive win on the judge’s scorecards.
Yan has a 1-inch height advantage and a 1-inch reach disadvantage against Dvalishvili. Expect to see Yan use his switch style to change up his lead hand and leg for attacking the legs and upper body of Dvalishvili.
In terms of striking volume, Yan also leads the way with 5.31 significant strikes per minute compared to Dvalishvili’s 4.21. Where Dvalishvili can make up for this in the first two rounds, whereas Yan tends to be a slower starter. If the fight goes past the opening rounds, then I highly favor Yan to start clocking up damage on Dvalishvili.
The game-changer for Dvalishvili is his takedowns. “The Machine” lives up to his nickname with an average of 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, Yan has a proficient takedown defense of 90% and will need to make use of it.
This is another tough match-up for Yan, who continues to fight the best at 135 pounds each fight. I expect to see this fight play out very competitively with the fight going over 2.5 rounds being one of the best bets to parlay. Given that this fight is five rounds Yan could snatch the win before the end of the fight, but my prediction is going to be a grueling five hard rounds.
Pick: Petr Yan by Decision.
Sterling Says Dvalishvili Has Blueprint to Beat Yan
The current UFC bantamweight champion has two wins over Petr Yan, it was the rematch that cemented Sterling as having a better gameplan than Yan. Knowing that Sterling and Dvalishvili are training partners, “Funkmaster” has shared his knowledge in the hopes his teammate can also capture a win over “No Mercy” Yan.
For this, Merab needs to make sure he fights his pace of fight,” said Sterling on his official YouTube channel. “Slow him down by taking away his offense with his shots, his punches, his unorthodox striking that he just throws some wild stuff sometimes to keep Yan guessing. And then when Yan tries to be super technical, it’ll leave those wild strikes, some openings and some room for him to set things up to get those takedowns or just to get the entry and push him against the cage. Drop a couple strikes, push off, go back and do that again. It’s not Merab’s job to get off the cage. It’s Petr’s job to get off the cage and do damage. Merab’s job is to put him on the cage, do damage, try to take him down, do damage.
“And that’s going to be the tempo of the fight,” continued Sterling. “He’s gonna have to fight Merab’s fight the entire time. This is a dangerous fight for Merab, but this is just as dangerous of a fight for Petr Yan. When you’re at the top of the game, it’s a game of inches. Merab just needs to be super dialed in, and I think he has the blueprint already on how to beat him. He’s got a striker’s blueprint from Sean O’Malley. He’s got a wrestler’s blueprint for myself.”
Comment below who your money is on, Merab or Yan?