- UFC odds have Geoff Neal as a +380 underdog against the fast-rising favorite Shavkat Rakhmonov -550.
- Rakhmonov has a perfect 16-0 record and is coming off a submission win over Neil Magny.
- Can Neal upset the odds as he has done in past? We give our betting prediction for Neal vs Rakhmonov below.
Shavkat Rakhamonov (16-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) takes on Geoff Neal (15-4 MMA, 7-2 UFC) at UFC 285, which takes place March 5th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Headlined by Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane, with Valentina Shevchenko returning to defend her flyweight title – it should be a blockbuster event! We review the latest odds for Neal vs Rakhmonov below.
Neal vs Rakhmonov Odds
Online sportsbooks are hot on Shavkat Rakhmonov and rightly so, at -550 which gives the Kazakh national an 84.6% implied win probability. Rakhmonov has won all 16 fights by stoppage, with eight by submission and the other half by TKO/KO. Expect to see Rakhmonov’s odds drift closer to -600 and beyond come fight night.
If you are betting on Geoff Neal to win as an underdog at UFC 285, you could make $380 profit off a $100 wager.
Neal has been sneakily impressive in the welterweight division, currently ranked no.7. He’s won his last two bouts against top contenders such as Vicente Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Prediction
Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal has a huge opportunity to shake up the division, with the hype behind Shavkat Rakhmonov feeling more real as each fight goes by. Neal is 3-2 in his past five fights, after suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in his MMA run against “Wonderboy” and Neil Magny. Since then Neal has emerged as a contender with two consecutive wins.
Shavkat Rakhmonov showed remarkable skill in his short time frame in the octagon with finishes by Knockout and submission, so it’s unsurprising he has become a huge betting favorite to wager on. He is coming off his most impressive performance after defeating Neil Magny in the second-round guillotine choke.
According to the latest UFC fight stats, Geoff Neal typically strikes with considerably more volume, with 5.75 average strikes per minute compared to 2.54 for Rakhmonov. This is typically down to Rakhmonov winning early in his fights.
Still, Neal should aim to take advantage of early and accumulate some rounds and early damage, by using his experience and takedown defense.
When it comes to wrestling and grappling, the tables are turned. Neal lands a minuscule 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and Rakhmonov excels with 2.31 which could be the game-changer here.
Geoff Neal has had his ups and downs and unfortunately Rakhmonov is a real contender for a future champ. Betting the straight moneyline on Rakhmonov is an obvious one here, but if I had to pick an exact method, go for Rakhmonov by submission.
What’s Next for Shavkat Rakhmonov?
Rakhmonov is currently ranked no.1 at welterweight and a win here could set up future fights against Gilbert Burns (no,5) or Belal Muhammad (no.4), with the other boogyman of the division Khazmat Chimaev lurking in the shadows too.
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