- Jan Blachowicz opens as the betting favourite against underdog Ronaldo Souza for UFC Sao Paulo.
- This will be Souza’s first UFC light heavyweight bout after making the move up from Middleweight.
- Blachowicz is coming off a KO win over former champ Luke Rockhold, will Blachowicz be the gatekeeper for stopping former Middleweights moving up to Light Heavyweight?
UFC Fight Night 164 goes down in Sao Paulo, Brazil on November 16. Headlined by by Ronaldo Souza vs Blachowicz, with ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Paul Craig as co-headliners. In this UFC Fight Night betting preview we break down the value in the opening odds.
Blachowicz vs Souza Odds
| Fighter | Odds via Bovada | Odds via Betway |
| Jan Blachowicz | 10/21 | 1/2 |
| Ronaldo Souza | 17/10 | 6/4 |
With Blachowicz being the betting favorite it means you need to bet $100 to win $50, while a $100 stake on Souza could earn you $150. We rate all the top betting sites for you prior to betting on UFC, they are listed here with promos next to them.
Souza (26-7, 1 NC), is a former Strikeforce champion, while aiming to find new life at 205 pounds after most recently coming up short to Jack Hermansson in April. The Brazilian is following suit with a move up in weight, we have seen Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold both received losses in their first Light Heavyweight bouts.
Blachowicz (24-8), has had a number of successful and lesser so runs in the UFC, he looked calculated in his last win over Rockhold and prior to that Thiago Santo’s ended his three-win streak by TKO in February. Souza is the more rounded fighter here and we like his odds as an underdog to cause an upset on home soil against Blachowicz.
In the co-main event Scotland’s own Paul Craig is stepping in as a replacement for Sam Alvey to face Maurício ‘Shogun’ Rua. We preview the opening betting odds for Rua vs Craig below.
Shogun Rua vs Paul Craig Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Shogun Rua | 8/15 |
| Paul Craig | 7/5 |
Shogun Run is given the advantage here according to the opening oddsmakers, 8/15 equates to an average of 65% chance of winning the fight. Bet $100 on Rua to win $53, while if you fancy Craig to cause an upset his odds as an underdog would mean $140 profit for a $100 bet.
Shogun Rua is the deserved favourite, most of Craig’s wins have come by submission and the last time Shogun was submitted was by Chael Sonnen in 2013. Pick Shogun by KO here once that betting market is available.
UFC Sao Paulo will go down on Nov. 16 at the Ginasio do Ibirapuera. With this latest addition, here is how the entire card stands:
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Ronaldo Souza
- Maurício Rua vs. Paul Craig
- Ariane Lipski vs. Priscila Cachoeira
- Kevin Holland vs. Antonio Arroyo
- Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Trevor Smith
- Duda Santana vs. Leah Letson
- James Krause vs. Sergio Moraes
- Francisco Trinaldo vs. Bobby Green
