- Odds: Jose Aldo -138 favorite, Pedro Munhoz +115 underdog.
- Prediction: Munhoz by Decision.
- Stats: Munhoz lands 2.15 more significant strikes per minute than Aldo.
Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz are set for a bantamweight bout on August 7 at UFC 265. Both fighters returned to the win column in their last fights, but for one fighter it will be a one-win fight streak come UFC 265. We review the opening UFC 265 odds for Aldo vs Munhoz below.
Aldo vs Munhoz Odds
It’s a close betting line for Aldo vs Munhoz, with the edge given to “The King of Rio”. Aldo’s implied win probability is 57.98% against Munhoz, bet $139 to win $100. On the other side, you have a Munhoz who the slight underdog, bet $100 to win $115 on the “The Young Punisher”.
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“It’s a huge fight,” Munhoz told MMA Junkie. “I never put my expectation in fights and results and things like that. I like to focus on doing my best on Aug. 7, but I do believe, and that’s crossed my mind every time, that an impressive victory over Jose Aldo is definitely a huge credibility for a title fight.”
Headlining UFC 265 is the lioness, Amanda Nunes taking on Julianna Peña. Nunes opened as a massive favorite and we will cover the betting props on that fight soon.
Prediction for Aldo vs Munhoz
First off, this fight should be fireworks. It’s some perfect matchmaking from the UFC. You have the legend Jose Aldo sitting 4th in the bantamweight rankings taking on #8 ranked Pedro Munhoz.
Both fighters are 34 years of age, with Aldo having much more fight milage from starting his pro MMA career five years before Munhoz. A win for Aldo or Munhoz would go a long way toward title contention in what’s quickly become a crowded bantamweight division.
It seems that some of the best years are still ahead for Munhoz. He has incredible low kicks and backs that up with crisp boxing and real submission capabilities. While Aldo made a name for himself throwing leg kick after leg kick, the latter stages of his UFC career have seen a more rigid counter boxing style.
Aldo’s form has been up and down, given he has been facing top-caliber opponents. After losing twice to Max Holloway, he bounced back with TKO wins over Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. Then lost by decision to current featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski, which promoted his move down to bantamweight.
From Aldo’s two fights at bantamweight it shows us he’s still got some of that Brazilian magic, but it’s not enough to win another title in a different weight class. He lost by split decision to Marlon Moraes, which many even Dana White had him winning. While Aldo came up short against Petr Yan at UFC 251, he returned as a slight favorite against Marlon Vera that December to win by decision.
When you compare Aldo vs Munhoz, one significant stat is the volume Munhoz throws is much more at 5.60 vs Aldo’s 3.45. This volume if it lands over the course of the fight could be enough to score a decision win over Aldo.
If Munhoz is having trouble with Aldo’s strking on the feet, expect some takedowns to come into effect. Lucklily enough for Aldo he has a takedown defence of 91%.
Overall I expect this fight to be very close. Two evenly matched strikers and with Munhoz’s experience of fighting another legend Frankie Edgar recently, I expect his game plan to be improved and there is definitely some betting value on Munhoz as an underdog here.
Pick: Munhoz by Decision.
UFC 265 Card
- Champ Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena – for women’s bantamweight title
- Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
- Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez
- Johnny Munoz vs. Jamey Simmons
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