- UFC 291 odds are favoring Jan Blachowicz -145 against Alex Pereira as a slight +120 underdog.
- What impact will Alex Pereira have at light heavyweight? Dana White guaranteed him a title shot with a win over Blachowicz.
- See our best bets, props and prediction for Blachowicz vs Pereira at UFC 291.
Alex Pereira’s light heavyweight debut is set for UFC 291 on July 9. The former champion went 4-1 at middleweight and is now looking for a new challenge at 205 pounds.
“Poatan” will take on #3 rank light heavyweight Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event. Headling the event will be the rematch between Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. We review the latest Blachowicz vs Pereira odds and give a fight prediction below.
Blachowicz vs Pereira Odds
Jan Blachowicz is the -145 favorite in the fight against Alex Pereira at UFC 291. These odds suggest that for every $145 wagered on Blachowicz, a profit of $100 would be gained if he wins. In terms of implied win probability, the odds indicate that Blachowicz has approximately a 59% chance of winning the fight.
Former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira enters the fight as the underdog with odds of +120. These odds imply that a $100 wager on Pereira would result in a profit of $120 if he pulls off the victory. The implied win probability for Pereira based on the odds is around 45%.
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Pereira and Blachowicz Props for UFC 291
Let’s analyze the prop bets for the fight between Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz.
Method of Victory:
Based on the odds, the most likely outcome for a win is either fighter winning by TKO/KO. Alex Pereira has slightly better odds for this outcome, ranging from +150 to +165, while Jan Blachowicz’s odds are around +250 to +360.
This suggests that Pereira is seen as the more likely candidate to secure a knockout or technical knockout victory. The least likely outcomes in this category are both fighters winning by submission. Pereira’s odds for winning by submission range from +2000 to +2300, and Blachowicz’s odds are slightly lower, ranging from +550 to +650. These odds indicate that their submission skills are considered less threatening compared to their striking abilities.
The odds favor the fight going under 2.5 rounds, with Pereira’s odds ranging from -200 to -225 and Blachowicz’s odds ranging from -172 to -200. This suggests that the bookmakers expect the fight to end within the first two and a half rounds.
On the other hand, the odds for the fight going over 1.5 rounds are less favorable, with Pereira’s odds at +114 and Blachowicz’s odds at +114 to +152. This implies that a quick finish in the first round and a half is considered less probable.
Both fighters have lower odds for the fight not going to a decision, with Pereira’s odds ranging from -250 to -286 and Blachowicz’s odds around -260 to -275. This indicates that the bookmakers anticipate a stoppage or knockout, and they see a decision as less likely.
The odds for the fight going to a decision are more favorable, with Pereira’s odds at +180 to +215. Blachowicz has slightly better odds in this category, ranging from +190 to +215. However, this still indicates that a decision is less probable.
The odds for the fight starting in round 2 are quite favorable, ranging from -260 to +106, suggesting that a second-round start is considered the most likely. The odds for the fight not starting in round 3 are less favorable, ranging from -140 to +180. This implies that the bookmakers expect the fight to reach the third round.
Fighter-specific Prop Bets:
Both fighters have odds for winning within specific rounds. Pereira’s best odds are for winning in round 1 at +360, while Blachowicz’s best odds are for winning in round 1 at +380. These odds suggest that a quick victory in the opening round is considered less probable, but both fighters are still seen as capable of achieving it.
Either Fighter to Win:
The odds favor either fighter winning by TKO/KO, with odds around -165, indicating that a stoppage victory is the most likely overall outcome. The odds for either fighter winning by submission are slightly better, ranging from +450 to +490, suggesting that a submission victory is seen as a bit more probable compared to a decision win.
Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira Prediction
Coming off a somewhat unsatisfactory result in his previous fight, where Jan Blachowicz settled for a majority draw against Magomed Ankalaev, the Polish fighter was eager to secure a bout that would propel him back into the title picture. When news reached him that Alex Pereira was making the move to the light heavyweight division, Blachowicz instantly knew the Brazilian knockout artist as the perfect next challenge to prove his worth and reclaim his status as a top contender.
This won’t be the first time Blachowicz has welcomed a champion from a lower weight class to 205 pounds. “Polish Power” handed israel Adeysnay his first MMA loss when he aimed to become a double champ at UFC 259 in 2021.
Blachowicz has respectable striking accuracy of 49% and landing an average of 3.41 significant strikes per minute, Blachowicz possesses the power to dismantle opponents on his feet.
He also displays a solid takedown defense of 68%, which indicates his ability to avoid being taken down and keep the fight standing where he is most dangerous. Blachowicz’s weakness lies in his grappling, as he averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and has a modest submission average.
Alex Pereira, whose record stands at 7 wins and 2 losses. Pereira may have fewer fights under his belt compared to Blachowicz, but his striking prowess stemming from his Glory kickboxing days cannot be overlooked. With a remarkable striking accuracy of 59% and an impressive 5.23 significant strikes landed per minute, Pereira brings a relentless and powerful striking style that has earned him accolades in the world of kickboxing.
While his takedown accuracy of 100% is flawless, his takedown average of 0.28 indicates a preference for keeping the fight on the feet. Pereira’s weakness, similar to Blachowicz, lies in his limited grappling skills, as he has yet to secure a submission victory in his professional career. In terms of physical attributes, both fighters are evenly matched. Blachowicz stands at 6’2″ with a reach of 78 inches, while Pereira boasts a slightly taller frame at 6’4″ with a reach of 79 inches.
With solid striking accuracy and power, he has the ability to test Pereira’s chin and capitalize on any defensive lapses. Additionally, his superior takedown defense could neutralize Pereira’s attempts to take the fight to the ground, forcing him to engage in a stand-up battle where Blachowicz excels.
To secure the win, Blachowicz should look to establish his striking game early on and potentially exploit Pereira’s slightly higher strikes absorbed per minute, finding openings to deliver powerful blows. Pereira, on the other hand, needs to leverage his kickboxing background and superior striking output.
His significant strikes per minute and impressive striking accuracy make him a formidable threat on the feet. Pereira should aim to utilize his reach advantage, keeping Blachowicz at bay and avoiding getting drawn into prolonged clinch or grappling exchanges.
In terms of predictions, this fight is likely to be a stand-up war, with both fighters eager to showcase their striking skills. Blachowicz’s experience and well-rounded game give him an edge, but Pereira’s explosive and relentless striking could pose a serious threat.
Ultimately, the outcome may come down to who can impose their will and dictate the pace of the fight. If Blachowicz can effectively avoid prolonged exchanges in the clinch and keep his distance, he has a higher chance of emerging victorious.
My prediction for this one is Alex will come up short in his 205-pound debut, with Blachowicz’s power and experience giving him the advantage to secure a KO victory at UFC 21.
Pick: Blachowicz by KO