Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 3 Predictions, Picks, Best Bets for UFC 264

Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 3
  • The latest UFC 264 odds for McGregor (-113) vs Poirier (-108).
  • We review the best bets for Poirier vs McGregor 3 at UFC 264
  • Early fight prediction: McGregor by KO (+115).

UFC 264 will go down July 10, headlined by a trilogy fight between Poirier vs McGregor. It follows up only six months after Conor McGregor’s second-round TKO loss to Dustin Poirier. McGregor is keen to show he has the game plan to settle this trilogy, meanwhile, Poirier is set on ending McGregor’s UFC career with another victory over the Notorious one. Below we will cover the latest predictions for McGregor vs Poirier 3.

In his return later in 2022, Conor has been connected with “Iron” Mike Chandler. You can preview the latest McGregor vs Chandler odds.

McGregor vs Poirier 3 Prediction

Conor McGregor has one previous rematch in the UFC, which was against Nate Diaz at UFC 202. McGregor showed improved patience, using leg kicks, and managed to survive five hard rounds to level the plain field against Diaz. Looking at how the first fight went down against Poirier, there are clear improvements that McGregor, Coach Kavanagh, and his camp will look to improve on.

First off, the leg kicks. A simple yet effective tactic we’ve seen more of in MMA, that’s been implemented across all weight classes in the UFC. It limits the range of movement by tacking the calf, we saw McGregor freeze up when Poirier started going to the upper body – due to the limited range of movement from the injured calf. McGregor will have to check these early on and perhaps throw some back, just like he did against Diaz in that rematch.

For the second fight against Poirier in January of this year, I think McGregor took him a little lightly. Everything seemed too smooth during the lead-up to 257, the yacht, the family were there for the unanimously positive pre-fight interviews. Obviously, McGregor isn’t doing this for the money anymore, he recently sold Proper 12 for about $600 million. So perhaps a loss was needed to reignite his fire and finish off his last UFC run with more wins under his belt.

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 – The Trilogy | Official Trailer | July 10

Due to the fact that McGregor is coming off a loss, I expect him to be even more motivated to pick up the win. Poirier could have taken a title shot, but instead decided to give McGregor his rematch and opt for the bigger payday.

Poirier’s strengths going into this rematch outweigh McGregor’s from what we’ve seen of both fighters lately. Clearly, all the strength and conditioning are paying dividends training with Phil Daru. Combining that his crisp boxing and lethal leg kicks, he matches up well with McGregor for this trilogy. One of the biggest assets on Poirier has worked in his favor are his flurry of punches, especially the hooks. It was that type of attack that stunned McGregor leaving him with no answer for the speed and ferociousness of the strikes.

Head to head look at Poirer vs McGregor – Stats for UFC 264

Looking at the recent UFC fight stats for UFC 264. Poirier and McGregor are surprisingly evenly matched in multiple areas of striking. Conor McGregor’s defense has dipped significantly from his last fight, he was primarily overextending himself leaving his defense wide open. Poirier also tends to land more significant strikes per minute, something McGregor will need to stick and move more in this third fight.

Overall this fight should play out more like a complete MMA fight. Transferring from the feet to grappling and moment on the ground. McGregor’s decision to get this rematch asap will work in his favor, his inactivity inside the octagon meant that the UFC somewhat passed him.

This time around expect to see McGregor lighter on his feet. Using more grappling and relying less on the boxing style that was ineffective in his last fight. For Poirier we could see a more aggressive version earlier in the fight, he’ll have the added confidence from earlier in the year and knows the recipe for success.

Pick: McGregor by KO.

Poirier vs McGregor 3 Best Bets

While the latest UFC 264 odds for McGregor vs Poirier offer decent value by betting on the moneyline. It’s always worth checking out the UFC prop bets for even more value. We have checked the latest odds and props from these online sportbooks to offer you the best value for your buck.

McGregor by KO/TKO: +120

We know how the first fight end, that’s very much how McGregor wins the trilogy. With a KO% of 86% and odds of +120, you can bet $100 on McGregor finishing Poirier by strikes to win $120.

Poirier by KO/TKO: +195

“The Diamond” handed McGregor his first KO loss at UFC 257. Could that of been the trigger to weakening the Irishman’s chin. Poirier certainly has finishing ability, you can bet $100 to win $195 on Poirier winning by KO/TKO.

Fight Doesn’t Goes The Distance: -380

Oddsmakers are hot on this fight not going the distance. To make any sort of profit on this bet, you’d need to put down $380 to net $100.

For different ways to bet on UFC fights, check out our how-to guide for MMA betting.

UFC 264 Main Card & Prelims

  • Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor                                                 
  • Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson
  • Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy
  • Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya
  • Sean O’Malley vs Louis Smolka
  • Carlos Condit vs Max Griffin
  • Niko Price vs Michel Pereira
  • Sean Brady vs Kevin Lee
  • Trevin Giles vs Dricus Du Plessis

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