- We cover the latest UFC 272 predictions for Covington vs Masvidal.
- One betting pick that stands out is Fight goes to a decision -160.
- Prediction: Colby Covington by decision.
One of the longest-running feuds in UFC history is set to settle on March 5. Colby “Chaos” Covington and former teammate Jorge Masvidal will throw down at UFC 272, at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. We review the latest Covington vs Masvidal predictions for this UFC 272 headliner.
UFC 272 Predictions: Covington vs Masvidal
Covington is currently a -400 favorite via BetMGM Sportsbook, while Masvidal is coming in as a +300 underdog. (Bet $100 to net $300 on “Gamebred). Check out our list of UFC betting sites for the best sign-up promos for UFC 272.
Many analysts and sportsbooks are picking Covington to easily win against Masvidal. However, given Colby’s reinvented style he might just want to keep this fight on the feet where it should be a more level playing field against Masvidal there.
Breaking down the fight stats for UFC 272, it tells us Masvidal will have a two-inch reach advantage over Covington. For Covington, he lands on average 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes but has a lower striking accuracy of 38% compared to Masvidal’s 48%.
The former interim-champion Covington has picked up more momentum over the past 2 years compared to Masvidal. After a ‘toxic feud‘ with American Top Team owner Dan Lambert, “Chaos” left his old gym to go train with MMA Masters.
Covington’s last two Octagon appearances saw him go 1-1, with a 2020 win over Tyron Woodley. Then returned to challenge Kamaru Usman a second time at UFC 268 to give Usman his biggest threat on the judge’s scorecards to date. Covington came up short but looked better than ever on the feet, something that will be interesting when squared up against a solid striker like Masvidal.
Masvidal on the other hand went 3-0 in 2019 and the UFC found themselves an icon they go promote. Unfortunately after much hype, “Gamebred” fell to Usman in his last two fights. The last of which was by a devastating KO in the second round at UFC 261. Marking the first time Masvidal was finished by strikes in his lengthly UFC journey.
Jorge has been a great striker with deceiving moves, including with his switch-stance Superman punch that knocked out Darren Till. In addition to his ruggedness, he has not been submitted since 2009.
Key here for Masvidal will be his wrestling defense, especially if Covington isn’t having success standing he may want to take Jorge down. With a takedown defense of 75%, Masvidal will have to be on his a-game.
At this point of his career, we will most likely start to see the decline of Masvidal. I expect both fighters to have their moments in this grudge, but I’m giving the edge to Colby to bring the chaos and outwork “Gamebred”, especially as the fight goes into the championship rounds.
Oddsmakers have set the betting line for this fight going to a decision at -160. I think this is one of the smarter bets for UFC 272, with both fighters being durable enough to make this a war that goes to a decision.
Betting Pick: Covington by Decision.
Keep a close eye on the current Covington vs Masvidal odds in the lead-up to fight week.
Masvidal The A-Side?
The UFC 272 grudge match between Masvidal (35-15 MMA), and Covington (16-3 MMA), is significant, given that they each held championship titles. Given the “BMF” title was more of a spectacle, they still remain top-ranked contenders.
“Definitely about (my star power), or he’ll try to take credit for it,” Masvidal told MMA Junkie. “He hasn’t, I think, broke in all of his pay-per-views combined 500,000 (buys). I don’t have to say what I’ve sold; everybody knows. So it’s definitely solely because of my star power, nothing to do with his.”
Despite the past two setbacks, Masvidal intends to redeem himself by defeating Covington in order to get another shot at UFC gold.
“He’s got the No. 1 ranking, so it’s gotta do something, right?” Masvidal said. “Because those rankings, as much bullsh*t as I think they are, he does have the No. 1, so there’s no denying me. If I’m No. 1, there’s no denying me, and that’s it. What has to happen, has to happen, but I definitely want the path to the title.”
What’s your UFC 272 prediction, Masvidal or Covington? Comment below.