Edwards vs Covington Odds, Props & Prediction for UFC 296

• Leon Edwards is currently a -125 favorite over Colby Covington +105 for the welterweight title at UFC 296.
• Daniel Cormier has already warned Edwards that Covington’s wrestling could be a problem.
• See what the best prop bets and fight predictions for Edwards vs Covington.

Leon Edwards is set to defend his UFC welterweight championship against Colby Covington at UFC 296. Covington is known for his exceptional cardio and volume striking, can “Chaos” make America great again by becoming the new welterweight champ at UFC 296?

Edwards is coming off consecutive wins over Kamaru Usman, with Covington being a fresh test for the “Rocky” at UFC 296. This is a fantastic match-up that will offer fans many betting angles and props to choose from.

Edwards vs Covington Odds

The latest UFC 296 odds for Edwards vs Covington have seen fluctuations, with Edwards initially listed as the underdog. In the past, Covington opened as a -190 favorite, while Edwards was the +165 underdog.

However, since the fight was officially announced, Leon Edwards is now a slight favorite with odds of -125, while Colby Covington is at +105. These odds mean that a bettor would need to risk $125 on Edwards to win $100, while a $100 bet on Covington would yield $105 if he wins.

Another fight that got recently added to the UFC 296 card, is Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett.

Edwards vs Covington Betting Props

Over/Under 1½ Rounds:

• Over 1½ Rounds: -1115
• Under 1½ Rounds: +550

This prop bet involves predicting whether the fight will last over or under 1½ rounds. The odds heavily favor the fight going over 1½ rounds (-1115), indicating an expectation of a longer fight. If you believe the fight will end early, placing a bet on under 1½ rounds could yield a substantial profit with odds at +550.

Fight goes to decision:

• Covington: -175
• Edwards: -195

Betting on whether the fight will go to a decision can be intriguing. Both fighters have negative odds, with the bookmakers favoring Edwards vs Covington going to a decision. However, these odds indicate a potential loss on the bet, so careful consideration is needed based on the fighters’ styles and past performances.

Covington wins inside distance:

• Yes: +500
• No: -900

This prop bet focuses on how Colby Covington will win the fight. Betting “Yes” on Covington winning inside the distance (by KO, TKO, or submission) offers favorable odds at +500. However, “No” indicates the opposite, with bookmakers expecting the fight to potentially go the distance. This bet adds an extra layer of strategy to predicting the fight outcome.

Edwards wins by TKO/KO:

• Yes: +38

This prop bet focuses on Leon Edwards winning by TKO or KO. The odds at +380 suggest a higher potential profit compared to other methods of victory for Edwards. Since there’s no option for “No” in this case, it’s a specialized bet that adds excitement for those specifically predicting an Edwards TKO/KO victory.

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Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Prediction

Edwards boasts an impressive record of 21 wins, 3 losses, and 0 draws (with 1 no-contest). His strengths lie in his ability to control the pace of the fight, maintaining an average bout duration of 16 minutes and 24 seconds. With 2.80 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) and a striking accuracy of 53%. This suggests a methodical approach, making every strike count.

I don’t expect to see Edwards using many takedowns in this fight, as that’s really Covington’s department. Instead, he should stick to what has made him champion with patience and precision striking to wear down “Chaos”.

Covington returned to action in March 2022 to defeat Jorge Masvidal by decision. This dominant performance alone is enough to see what the oddsmakers have this fight as such a close call.

“Chaos’s” strength lies in his exceptional out in the striking department, landing 4.10 strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 39%. He has the potential to overwhelm his opponents with a higher strike output. However, his defense can be slack with an absorboration rate of 3.05 strikes per minute, and maintains a slightly higher defensive rate at 55%. The key to Covington’s success is their exceptional takedown skills, averaging an impressive 4.05 takedowns every 15 minutes and displaying a takedown accuracy of 45%.

Edwards’s advantage lies in their ability to control the pace and wear down their opponent over time. He should aim to utilize their striking accuracy and avoid taking unnecessary damage. Covington, on the other hand, should focus on edging out rounds with high-volume output and takedown skills.

To sum it up, Edward’s path to victory involves methodical striking and potential submission opportunities, while Covington should rely on mixing up his striking, wrestling, and takedown game. Once Covington doesn’t show any apparent signs of ring rust or age, I do like his value as the betting underdog to cause an upset to the champ at UFC 296.

Betting Pick: Covington by Decision.