- Shavkat Rakhmonov opens as a -410 betting favorite against Stephen Thompson at +330 for UFC 296.
- Will Rakhmonov maintain his undefeated streak and win once again inside the distance?
- See the best betting props and fight prediction for Rakhmonov vs Wonderboy.
UFC 296 continues to deliver with yet another exciting match-up on the cards. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is set to take on the boogeyman of the welterweight division Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov. Can “Wonderboy” rewind the clock and pick up a win or will Rakhmonov cement his position as the future of the division? We break down the latest UFC 296 betting odds for Rakhmonov vs Thompson.
Rakhmonov vs Thompson Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | -410 |
| Stephen Thompson | +330 |
The latest UFC 296 odds have Shavkat Rakhmonov as a solid -410 favorite as he takes on “Wonderboy” Thompson at +330. That’s an implied win probability of 80.3% for Rakhmonov who is expected to maintain his 17-0 undefeated record.
Of course, Thompson’s experience and ability to keep his distance could prove to be tricky for Rakhmonov. We’ll be sure to list prop bets for UFC 296, including odds on Rakhmonov to win inside the distance, Thompson to win be decision, and much more!
Rakhmonov vs Thompson Prop Bets
| Bet | Rakhmonov | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Rakhmonov wins by TKO/KO | +275 | +320 |
| Thompson wins by TKO/KO | +1200 | +1150 |
| Rakhmonov wins by submission | +120 | +140 |
| Thompson wins by submission | +4500 | +2400 |
| Rakhmonov wins by decision | +240 | +245 |
| Thompson wins by decision | +800 | +900 |
| Rakhmonov wins in round 1 | +200 | +215 |
| Thompson wins in round 1 | +2100 | +2000 |
| Rakhmonov wins in round 2 | +380 | +380 |
Fight goes to decision (+165): This bet suggests that the fight will last the full duration, and the outcome will be determined by the judges. Considering the fighters’ records and styles, this could be a reasonable bet, especially if both are known for their durability.
Rakhmonov wins by TKO/KO (+275): This bet indicates that Rakhmonov is favored to win by a knockout or technical knockout. If Rakhmonov has a history of finishing fights in this manner and his opponent is susceptible to striking, this could be a promising bet.
Either fighter wins by submission (+110): This is a more generalized bet, suggesting that either Rakhmonov or Thompson will secure a submission victory. If both fighters are skilled in submissions, this could be a plausible outcome.
Fight ends in round 1 (+175): If the fighters are known for their aggressiveness or have a history of early finishes, betting on the fight ending in the first round could be a reasonable choice.
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Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson Prediction
Shavkat Rakhmonov is a rising star who boasts a perfect record of 17 wins with zero losses and draws. He’s a force to be reckoned with, known for stunningly finishing fights. Rakhmonov has never gone the distance in his MMA career and holds finishes over Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and Alex Oliveira.
Rakhmonov possesses an impressive striking game. He lands significant strikes at a rate of 4.45 per minute with a striking accuracy of 59%. That’s pinpoint accuracy that can spell trouble for anyone in his path.
Don’t be fooled by his striking prowess; Rakhmonov is equally dangerous on the ground. With a submission average of 1.5 per 15 minutes, he’s a grappling wizard. If he can take the fight to the mat, it could be game over for his opponent. His takedown defense is impeccable, standing at 100%. This means he’s incredibly difficult to take down and control on the ground.
The one chink in Rakhmonov’s armor that Thompson could expose is his striking defense: While Rakhmonov’s offense is formidable, his striking defense could use some tightening up, with a 53% defense rate. Against a striker like Thompson, this could be exposed even more, especially by those question mark head kicks.
Now, let’s shift our focus to the seasoned veteran, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, with a record of 17 wins, 6 losses, and 1 draw. Thompson has been in the Octagon with the best of the best and knows how to handle high-pressure situations, such as the two T-Woodley fights. Thompson is 3-2 in his last five fights and is ranked #7 in the UFC’s welterweight division.
Thompson is renowned for his striking skills. He might not land as frequently as Rakhmonov, but his striking is devastating. With a striking accuracy of 45%, he makes every shot count. Wonderboy’s defense is solid at 55%, but not what it used to be. Against Rakhmonov’s precision, he’ll need to stay sharp.
So, how could this fight play out? Rakhmonov’s best path to victory might involve showcasing his striking accuracy early on and then transitioning to his submission game if an opportunity arises. On the other hand, Thompson should aim to keep the fight standing and use his striking expertise to outpoint his opponent.
One key advantage to consider is Rakhmonov’s youth and undefeated record. The confidence of an undefeated fighter can be a formidable asset. However, Thompson’s experience and ability to adapt during a fight should not be underestimated.
At 40 years of age, Thompson is still picking up wins against solid opponents. That being said Rakhmonov is a scary dude and poses a much bigger threat than Kevin Holland did to Thompson. I see Rakhmonov getting the job done here by any way he wants, which could likely go the distance over three rounds with Rakhmonov’s hand held high in the end.
Betting Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov
For more UFC 296 odds check out our preview of Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington for the welterweight strap. Then the bizarre match-up between Ferguson vs Pimblett offers some real betting value on Tony as the underdog. Ian Garry vs Vicente Luque props are also live!