- Odds: The reigning champions Petr Yan is -138 favorite, with Sterling a +110 underdog.
- Prediction: Petr Yan by KO/TKO.
- Stats: Sterling wins by submission 42%, Yan wins by KO 47% of the time.
Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling is one of three title fights at UFC 259. This will be Yan’s first bantamweight title defense against a hot Aljo Sterling. We break down the round betting and method of victory props for Sterling vs Aljo.
Yan vs Sterling Prediction
Petr Yan defeated Jose Aldo at UFC 251 to win the vacant bantamweight title. Yan was tested by Aldo, but his crisp boxing and toughness prevailed. Now Yan has a bigger challenge in front of him, Aljamain Sterling who is on a five-win fight streak.
On the feet Yan is the better striker, landing 6.32 significant strikers per minute compared to Sterling at 4.82. They are evenly matched in striking accuracy at 50%. In terms of striking defense, Yan absorbs 3.25 strikes per minute, compared to Sterling at 1.94, showing Sterling has the better defense.
If this fight goes to the ground Sterling will have the advantage. 42% of Sterling’s wins come by submission and he also has 2 KO wins on his resume also. Yan’s answer to this will be his proven takedown defense of 88%.
Sterling is known as a fast starter. However, as the fight goes into the later round, I can see him fading and Yan taking control. That being said if Sterling wins this, it’s early in the fight and that is a real possibility.
Yan does most of his damage with his hands, he has solid combinations, good footwork, and underrated power which could cause Aljo some problems depending on his game plan.
If Aljo’s game plan is to wait for a submission opportunity doesn’t prevail, he does have a wide range of unpredictable shots that could catch Yan. The downside to that is leaving himself open to getting finished by Yan, who is like a shark when going for the finish.
This is definitely a close fight to call. The oddsmakers got it right with Yan being the slight favorite. I like Yan’s odds parlayed with another favorite on the card.
Pick: Petr Yan.
Best Bets for Yan vs Sterling
There is a large selection of boxing props for Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling. From betting on the method of victory to over-under round betting. Below are my four personal favorites for UFC 259.
Yan by KO: +300
As I have covered above Yan wins almost half of his fights by KO. Sterling can also leave himself open to shots and has been finished once before. You can bet $100 to win $300 on Yan winning by KO/TKO.
Sterling by Submission: +350
Aljamain Sterling’s best chance of winning this fight is by submission. The submission prop for Sterling is +350, bet $100 win $350.
Yan by Decision: +275
I could easily see this fight being a five-round war and ending in a close decision for Yan, bet $100 to win $275 if Petr Yan wins by points.
Total Rounds Over 2.5: -163
As I mentioned above I don’t see this fight being ended in the opening two rounds. A feeling out process from Yan and Sterling could see this fight going past 2.5 rounds, meaning if you bet $163 you could win $100 on this betting prop.