- Odds: Dustin Poirier -200 favorite, Nate Diaz +150 underdog.
- Betting Pick: Dustin Poirier by Decision.
In classic Nate Diaz fashion, the Stockton southpaw called out no. 1 contender Dustin Poirier. After Poirier’s trilogy win over Conor McGregor, he was primed for a title shot against Charles Oliveira. Could Diaz be Poirier’s next opponent, we don’t think so. However the oddsmakers have already released UFC betting lines for this possible future bout.
Poirier vs Diaz Odds
Former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier opened as the betting favorite against Nate Diaz. The opening odds have “The Diamond” as a -200 favorite, that’s an implied win probability of 66.67%. The younger half of the Diaz brothers’ Nate has always been a perennial underdog. For this fight he’s currently listed at +150 (Bet $100, win $150).
*These future odds are available at select online sports betting sites, reviewed on Betting Insider Journal.
Betting on Poirier vs Diaz
In Nate Diaz’s last fight we saw him lose by unanimous decision to Leon Edwards. Diaz landed 76 of 162 significant strikes, just one more landed for Edwards 77 of 132. The stats paint a different picture, as many had Edwards dominating the fight until Diaz’s final round onslaught that almost stopped Edwards in his tracks. Diaz will always be a household name, no matter how many L’s go on his record. I expect him to be a +300 underdog if this fight against Poirier ever happens.
For “The Diamond” he holds all the marbles at lightweight now. He’s currently the betting favorite against Oliveira in the anticipated lightweight championship bout for later this year. He holds two wins over Conor McGregor and now Khabib is retired for good.
Legacy or Money Fights for Poirier?
Brett Okamoto of ESPN, thinks it puts DP in a tough position. In terms of fighting for legacy against Oliveria or more money against Diaz. “The question is, how interested is the UFC in making it? Poirier has a claim to being the best lightweight in the world, and a fight between Poirier and lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is the most obvious to make for the division. I could really see this going either way. It’s nice to see Poirier and Diaz have so many options, but if you just look at their social media exchanges, it’s obvious their main interest is fighting each other — which makes me lean (ever so slightly) toward real. This will be the next fight for both.”
“Wolf tickets,” Poirier continued. “You know how these negotiations go, unless they’re talking to him … nothing has been offered to me at all, I haven’t spoken to the UFC. I can’t say the same for Nate but I think they will call me soon. He’s a fighter I’ve been watching a long time, I think our styles match up well, it would be a great fight but like I said, I’m not chasing him. There’s a possibility it could happen, but on my ‘things to do’ list, that’s not the next thing to do.”
In the end Poirier seems to of stayed true to the UFC rankings. Not many can blame him for taking a ‘red panty’ night from Conor. He recognizes that Diaz is selling wolf tickets and that this fight will be there after his title shot against Oliveira in Brazil.