- Odds: Kamaru Usman -300 favorite vs Colby Covington +245 underdog.
- This is a rematch from their bout at UFC 246, where Usman won by TKO in the 5th round.
- What adjustments can Colby make to challange Usman’s dominant title reign?
The heated rematch between Usman and Covington is targeted for November 6 at Madison Square Garden, NY. Usman is set to defend his welterweight title for the fifth time. Meanwhile, Covington has only fought once since their 2019 fight, picking up a win over former champ Tyron Woodley. We review the opening Usman vs Covington 2 Odds with some early betting analysis of this UFC 268 headliner.
Usman vs Covington 2 Odds
According to the latest UFC 268 odds, Usman opened as a firm betting favorite -270 (Bet $300, win $100). That’s an implied win probability of 75% for “The Nigerian Nightmare” in this rematch in the making. As a major underdog, Covington’s odds are currently +245, (Bet $100, win $245). Both fighters are at the top of their game right now and this should be another excellent rematch at MSG, with huge PPV sales expected.
Check out UFC 268 betting promo below, for the best Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington odds.
Usman’s a Solid Betting Pick
“The Nigerian Nightmare” has maintained similar favorite betting odds for his last few bouts. From facing Masvidal as a -260 favorite, then Burns he listed at -225 on select online sportsbooks. He’s ranked as the no. 1 pound-for-pound fighter and is only three months out from claiming another rematch victory over Jorge Masvidal.
Usman has showed incredible improvements in his game, in particular his striking which he didn’t rely on as much in his title run. I expect the betting line to trend in Usman’s favor even more for the upcoming grudge match.
That all being said, their first fight was competitive. Both fighters are known for their wrestling but remained within striking distance and kept the fight on the feet. Covington will have to be careful about keeping his head on the center line and consider utilizing some kicks and wrestling to mix up the game plan to find any success against Usman.
Covington Accuses Usman of Ducking Rematch
Colby’s only other UFC loss was to Warlley Alves. After that, he went on a seven-fight win streak. Picking up dominant wins over Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler to earn his title shot against Usman in 2019.
In a recent interview with MMA Fighting, Covington accused Usman of ducking the rematch.
“As soon as his balls stop shrinking and he comes back to earth, he can fight me again,” Covington said. “But the thing is, he’s off the grid. He’s probably got his phone on airplane mode, he’s denying all the UFC’s calls. He doesn’t want to sign the contract. He’s just hoping some alien invasion happens where he can pick some other lightweight washout to fight.”
Realistically Usman is not ducking anyone, especially Colby. However, not taking the rematch straight away was a smart idea on Usman’s part. It kept the division fresh and gave him more time to grow and develop as a champion.
Madison Square Garden has hosted four major UFC pay-per-view events, most recently UFC 244 in November 2019. The famed New York City arena has been off-limits due to COVID-19 capacity restrictions; in May, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said venues can run at 100 capacity for fully vaccinated people, or in limited capacity with 50 percent vaccinated and 50 percent unvaccinated.
Are the UFC 268 odds realistic or is Colby getting snubbed? Comment below! For more MMA odds and betting news, check out our MMA section.