- Odds: Justin Gaethje -180 betting favorite, Michael Chandler +150 underdog.
- Prediction: Gaethje via TKO/KO.
Fans are in for a treat at UFC 268 where ‘extreme violence’ will be on display. Justin Gaethje is set to take on Michael Chandler, this fight should be absolute fireworks and we are predicting a KO on the night. The winner of Gaethje vs Chandler is expected to get a title shot at lightweight. We review the betting odds for UFC 268 below and prediction for Gaethje vs Chandler.
Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler Odds
Since the opening odds were released for this fight Gaethje has jumped from a -140 to -180 favorite. Depending on which online sports betting site you check. That mean’s the current implied win probability is 64.29% for Gaethje defeating Chandler. His opponent former Bellator champion Michael Chandler is 1-1 in the UFC, the explosive lightweight has odds of +155, which means you can net $155 on a $100 wager.
Gaethje vs Chandler Prediction
The stakes will be high in this 155-pound bout. Both fighters are well equipped to KO each other inside one round. Their styles are similar and it will be interesting to see who executes the best game plan at UFC 268.
I expect Michael Chandler to use faints and jabs to close the distance against Gaethje. This could fall into Gaethje’s game plan and have this fight within boxing distance. Although both fighters come from a wrestling background, I don’t see many takedowns being attempted. That being said, it might not be a bad idea o Chandler’s part to land 1-2 takedowns depending on his strategy for this fight. If Chandler does adopt a more veteran mindset that we saw in his first UFC fight against Dan Hooker, then patience could be key for him upsetting the odds at UFC 268.
Let’s jump into the UFC 268 fight stats for this bout. Gaethje has the edge with 7.46 significant strikes landed per minute compared to 4.49 for Chandler. It’s not only the volume that Gathje has an advantage his accuracy is 9% more than his opponents. When it comes to takedowns Chandler boasts 41% takedown accuracy compared to Gaethje at zero and Chandler also has an average of 2.13 takedowns per fifteen minutes.
Michael Chandler wings out the left hand so much, it could leave him open to Justin Gaethje’s hooks. Similar to when Gaethje fought Tony Ferguson, “The Highlight” would slip and catch Tony’s shots and counter with an insider hook. Leg kicks could also play a vital role in this fight. Chandler likes to get low and have a wide stance, which may leave his lead leg open to some early leg kick from Gaethje to slow his opponent’s movement down.
Gaethje is coming off a year layoff. As he said in the interview above, he’s missed the chaos. During his downtime, he’s focused on nutrition and maintaining healthy habits that will only benefit him at UFC 269 Being a fighter that thrives in that environment I see Chandler falling into Gaethje’s traps and getting countered multiple times.
Betting Pick: Gaethje by TKO/KO.
Betting Odds for UFC 268
|Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington 2||here|
|Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang 2||here|
|Frankie Edgar vs Marlon Vera||here|
For more UFC odds and predictions, check out our MMA section on a regular basis.