- UFC 290 betting odds are highly in Alexander Volkanovski’s favor -375 against Yair Rodriguez +290.
- At +340, could Rodriguez be worth a bet to upset the odds? We find out.
- See the best betting props and picks for betting on Volkanovski vs Rodriguez.
On July 8 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, UFC 290 kicks off their first summer PPV card in style with two title fights on the card.
Alexander Volkanovski will return to 145 pounds to defend his belt against the always-game Yair Rodriguez. In the co-main, Alexandre Pantoja takes on Brandon Moreno for the flyweight championship. We review the latest odds for Volkanovski vs Rodriguez at UFC 290 below.
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Alexander Volkanovski | -375 |
| Yair Rodriguez | +290 |
According to the latest UFC 290 odds, Alexander Volkanovski is listed as the favorite with odds of -375, while Yair Rodriguez is listed as the underdog with odds of +200.
Based on the implied win probabilities, the odds suggest that Alexander Volkanovski has a higher chance of winning the fight at approximately 78.%, compared to Yair Rodriguez’s chance of approximately 33%.
This means that a bettor would have to wager $37 to win $10 if they choose Volkanovski and he wins the fight. On the other hand, the positive odds (+290) for Rodriguez signify that he is the underdog. This means you’d win $290 for a $100 wager if they choose Rodriguez and he wins the fight.
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez Betting Props
First, we have the overall outcome of the fight. Volkanovski, the reigning champion, is favored across the board with odds ranging from -400 to -450. On the other hand, Rodriguez enters the ring as the underdog, with odds ranging from +285 to +333. So, if you’re looking for a potential upset, Rodriguez might be your go-to pick.
Now, let’s explore some specific outcomes. If you believe this fight will go the distance, the odds are in your favor, except for BetRivers, where the odds for a decision are -138. However, if you think the fight won’t make it to the judges, the odds are stacked against you, with most sportsbooks offering -500000 for that particular outcome.
In terms of the rounds, starting with round two, the odds heavily favor the fight going into the second round (-1000), while the odds for it not reaching round two are at +510. The same pattern follows for rounds three and four, with progressively decreasing odds for the fight going beyond those rounds.
If you’re looking for a knockout or technical knockout, both fighters offer tempting odds. Volkanovski winning by TKO/KO ranges from +300 to +550, while Rodriguez winning by TKO/KO ranges from +550 to +5500, making it a potentially lucrative option if you’re betting on Rodriguez’s power and striking skills.
For those who believe in the submission game, Volkanovski winning by submission offers odds ranging from +1100 to +8000, while Rodriguez winning by submission goes from +1500 to +10000. These odds suggest that the submission outcome is considered less likely, but could yield a significant payout if you’re willing to take the risk.
Finally, if you’re interested in the fight ending in a specific round, the odds vary greatly depending on the round and the desired outcome. Betting on a first-round finish carries the highest risk, but also the highest rewards, with odds ranging from +900 to +2000 for Volkanovski and +1500 to +5500 for Rodriguez.
In summary, the most likely ways this fight could end, according to the odds, are a decision victory for Volkanovski or a knockout victory for either fighter.
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Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez Prediction
Alexander Volkanovski (25-2 MMA, 12-1 UFC) is widely regarded as the greatest featherweight in UFC history. He has defeated all featherweight champions except Conor McGregor. Notably, Volkanovski has emerged victorious in three bouts against Max Holloway, which showcases his exceptional skills.
Although he recently faced a loss in his pursuit of becoming a Champ Champ against Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev, Volkanovski gained immense respect and popularity. This fight proved that Makhachev is not the unstoppable force resembling Khabib Nurmagomedov as previously believed. Volkanovski will enter this but with nothing to prove, but Rodriguez will have his eye on the prize and should not be overlooked.
In terms of striking, Volkanovski has a slight advantage over Rodriguez. He lands an average of 6.35 significant strikes per minute (SLpM) with a striking accuracy of 56%. This indicates his precision and effectiveness in the stand-up game. On the other hand, Rodriguez lands fewer strikes per minute at 4.78 with a striking accuracy of 46%. While his accuracy is slightly lower, he possesses devastating knockout power and can finish fights with his explosive striking.
Both fighters have shown solid defensive skills, but Volkanovski has a slightly higher striking defense at 59% compared to Rodriguez’s 53%. This suggests that Volkanovski may have better head movement and footwork to evade strikes. However, Rodriguez’s reach advantage, standing at 5′ 11″ with a 71″ reach, could play a factor in keeping Volkanovski at bay and landing significant strikes.
In terms of grappling, Volkanovski has the upper hand. He averages 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 34%. His takedown defense is also notable at 69%, indicating his ability to prevent opponents from taking him down.
On the other side, Rodriguez averages fewer takedowns at 0.79 per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 28%. While Rodriguez possesses a higher submission average per 15 minutes, Volkanovski has showcased excellent submission defense throughout his career.
Analyzing their most recent fights, Volkanovski suffered a loss to Makhachev but won even more fans on the night – due to his dominant performance. Prior to that, he defeated top contenders like Max Holloway and Brian Ortega. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is coming off a win against Josh Emmett. Both fighters have faced and defeated Holloway and Ortega, showing their ability to handle high-level competition.
Given Volkanovski’s well-rounded skill set, including his superior striking accuracy, takedown ability, and defensive prowess, he holds a clear betting advantage in this matchup.
His ability to mix up his strikes with takedowns could be a key factor in controlling the fight and neutralizing Rodriguez’s explosiveness. Furthermore, Volkanovski’s experience in championship fights adds another layer of confidence in his ability to perform under pressure.
That said, Rodriguez should not be underestimated. His reach advantage and knockout power make him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division. If he can utilize his length effectively and find a way to keep the fight on the feet, he has the potential to catch Volkanovski with a fight-ending strike. Rodriguez is a durable fighter and will likely aim to go toe to toe with Volk, which could mean we’ll see a finish inside the distance.
Taking everything into consideration, my prediction leans towards Alexander Volkanovski to come out on top. His well-rounded skills, superior accuracy, and ability to control the fight should give him the edge. However, Rodriguez’s explosiveness and knockout potential make this an intriguing matchup that could end in a thrilling finish.
Pick: Volkanovski by TKO/KO.
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