- UFC 290 odds have Robert Whittaker as a 370 favorite to win against Dricus Du Plessis +265.
- Du Plessis has the advantage in striking accuracy and significant strikes landed per minute, but Whittaker has more championship-level experience and ways to win this fight.
- Whittaker’s striking skills and experience make him the favorite to win, see what round we are picking “The Reaper” to win in.
Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis are set to face each other in a middleweight title eliminator bout with the winner earning a shot at the 185-pound champion, Israel Adesanya.
We review the odds for this UFC 290 co-main event which is expected to take place in Las Vegas on July 8 at the T-Mobile Arena. Let’s dive right into the latest betting odds for Whittaker vs Du Plessis with a fight prediction to follow.
Whittaker vs Du Plessis Odds
|Dricus Du Plessis||+265|
According to the provided odds, Robert Whittaker is the favorite to win against Dricus Du Plessis, with a moneyline of -370, which means that a $100 bet on Whittaker would yield a profit of $27.03 if he wins. On the other hand, Du Plessis has a moneyline of +265, which means that a $100 bet on him would yield a profit of $265 if he pulls off the upset victory.
The implied probability of Whittaker winning based on the moneyline is approximately 78.8%, while Du Plessis has an implied probability of winning at around 27.4%. However, it is important to note that odds can change leading up to the fight and are not always accurate predictors of the actual outcome.
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One of the smartest bets here would be the fight going over 2 rounds, with Whittaker either getting a late stoppage victory or winning by decision.
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis Prediction
Former UFC middleweight champion “Bobby Knuckles” recently defeated Marvin Vettori at UFC Paris in September 2022 with a record of 24-6, and has an average fight time of 14 minutes and 25 seconds. His striking significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) is 4.48, with a striking accuracy of 42%.
Whittaker absorbs an average of 3.26 significant strikes per minute (SApM), but his defense rate is 61%. He has an average of 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a takedown accuracy of 37% and an 84% takedown defense.
His submission average per 15 minutes is 0.0. Based on these stats, Whittaker’s strengths seem to be his defense rate and his takedown defense, while his weaknesses are his striking accuracy and significant strikes absorbed per minute.
My initial assumption was that Whittaker would win with ease. Nevertheless, I do believe that this could be an opportunity for Du Plessis to showcase his skills and take advantage of Whittaker’s possible slowdown in the next few years.
Despite this, Whittaker has consistently demonstrated his speed advantage over his opponents and his impressive fight IQ in his battles with Yoel Romero and current champion Israel Adesanya.
Dricus Du Plessis is a rising star in the UFC, with a 19-2 MMA record. In his most recent fight, he stopped Derek Brunson in the 2nd round and prior to that he submitted Darren Till at UFC 282.
Dricus Du Plessis, with a record of 19-2-0, has an average fight time of 9 minutes and 33 seconds. His striking SLpM is 6.72, with a striking accuracy of 55%.
Du Plessis absorbs an average of 3.73 SApM, with a defense rate of 53%. He has an average of 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 50%. His submission average per 15 minutes is 1.3.
Based on these stats, Du Plessis’ strengths seem to be his striking accuracy and significant strikes landed per minute, as well as his takedown accuracy and submission average per 15 minutes. However, his weaknesses are his defense rate and takedown defense.
Based on their recent performances, this fight is expected to be a closely contested one. Whittaker’s experience and well-rounded skill set make him a formidable opponent for Du Plessis. However, Du Plessis has shown impressive striking skills and has a tendency to finish fights. It is possible that he could catch Whittaker off guard with his power and end the fight early.
Du Plessis has two significant vulnerabilities in his fighting style that Whittaker can exploit. The first is his cardio, which has been a disadvantage for him in fights lasting three rounds. With Whittaker’s high volume of strikes, this weakness will be further exposed. The second weakness is Du Plessis’s occasional lack of defense against strikes.
Ultimately, Whittaker’s striking skills and experience make him the favorite to win this fight. The prediction is that Whittaker will win by unanimous decision.
Betting Pick: Whittaker by decision.