- Odds: Paulo Costa -164 favorite, Jared Cannonier +120 underdog.
- Stats: Wins by KO for Cannonier 69%, while wins by KO Costa 85% of the time.
- Prediction: Jared Cannonier by TKO.
Two of the top UFC middleweights Paulo Costa and Jared Cannonier are set to headline a UFC Fight Night. Costa is ranked #2 and Cannoniee #4 in the middleweight rankings, We review the opening Costa vs Cannonier odds & early fight prediction below.
Paulo Costa vs Jared Cannonier Odds
The oddsmakers are giving Paulo Costa the edge over Jared Cannonier. With an implied win probability for “The Eraser”of 62%, bet $164 to win $100. For Cannonier, he opens as the underdog, bet $100 to win $120.
Expect lots of betting action on both sides of this fight. Costa is coming off a lengthy layoff from September 2020, while Cannonier lost a title eliminator fight to former champion Robert Whittaker.
For all the latest UFC odds and best sites to choose from, check out our list of best online sportsbooks.
Another major middleweight bout that was recently announced was Darren Till vs Derek Brunson for August 14, at UFC Fight Night 194.
Costa vs Cannonier Prediction
Paulo Costa and Jared Cannonier are two of the heaviest hitters in the middleweight division. Costa has 11 KO wins under his belt. Meanwhile, Jared Cannonier has 9 KO wins and two submission wins on his resume.
They are both finishers and I expect the “Killa Gorilla” to be fired up and channeling that same energy he had against Jack Hermansson and David Branch. There is definitely betting value on wagering on Cannonier as an underdog here, especially once the prop bets to win by KO/TKO are released.
Costa has been a dominant force since entering the UFC 2017. With wins over Uriah Hall and Yoel Romero to cement his title shot in 2020. However, “The Eraser” was outperformed and outclassed by the champ at UFC 253, with the UFC stats below painting a clear picture of that peformance.
Will Costa’s inactivity cost him the fight against Cannonier? It’s hard to say. He typically hasn’t fought too often since 2017, with only one fight per year. If Costa can make this a fight similar to the Romero one, then it will benefit him more. To win this fight Costa will have to press hard and time his counter striking against one of the most powerful punches at 185 pounds. Due to Costa being so hittable I’m going to pick the upset here and go with Jared Cannonier by TKO.
Pick: Jared Cannonier
The Stakes are High at Middleweight
With the champion, Israel Adesanya returns to his division to defend his middleweight strap. All eyes are on the Adesanya-Vettori rematch with momentum building on Vettori’s side. We saw Adesanya lose his first MMA bout to Jan Blachovic which came as a huge surprise to many, as “Stylebender” aimed to become a two-division champion.
Now Costa and Cannonier are coming off decisive losses to the top of the division. A win here could project them back into a title shot, depending on how the fight plays out. Also in the mix at middleweight is “The Reaper” himself, Robert Whittaker went on an impressive run after losing to Adesanya and poses a real threat to Adesanya once they finally get a rematch.
What’s your early fight prediction for Costa vs Cannonier? Comment below!