- Odds: Robert Whittaker -210 favorite, Kelvin Gastelum +165 underdog.
- Prediction: Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO.
- Whittaker was originally expected to face Gastelum at UFC 234, this rebooked fight is set for April 17.
Paulo Costa is out of his bout against Rob Whittaker. Kelvin Gastelum has stepped up to replace Costa in a fight that was originally set to happen in 2019. We review the betting odds & early fight prediction for Whittaker vs Gastelum below.
Whittaker vs Gastelum Odds
Robert Whittaker enters this bout as the betting favorite, with an implied win probability of (Bet $210 to win $100). Kelvin Gastelum picked up a needed win over Ian Heinisch in his last bout, Gastelum is a +165 underdog, (Bet $100 to win $165).
Betting Value with Robert Whittaker
First off, props to both fighters for taking this fight on last minute notice.
Seeing how Whittaker handled the loss to Adesanya and returned with wins over two impressive middleweights in Darren Till and Jared Cannonier. Shows us he has what it takes to rise to the top again.
Whittaker has the range and distance to cause Gastelum some problems. Gastelum relies on classic one-two’s, overhand rights, and fast flurries to close the distance, which Whittaker will have to be aware of and not get clipped.
Overall Whittaker is the more faster and technical fighter on the feet. He fought a game of striking chess with Darren Till over five rounds and dismantled Cannonier’s biggest weapons over three rounds.
The betting line is tempting for a bet on Gastelum as a big underdog. Going up against Whittaker who isn’t as big of a favorite from when odds were initially released for this bout back in 2019.
Gastelum looked good in his return against Ian Heinisch. Showing some real patience and improved grappling. However, I believe Gastelum is not the same fighter since his war against Adesanya.
Pick: Robert Whittaker by head kick.
The Bottom Line
This is a crossroads fight for a potential future champion of the Middleweight champion. After Adesanya aimed for greatness but ultimately came short against Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259. His focus will now return to the division he dominated with some potential rematches and younger fighters coming up ranks.
The winner between Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker deserves a second shot at the champ Israel Adesanya. If Whittaker gets past Gastelum and Adesanya, there is a real case for him to be cemented among the MMA goats.
Looking to the rest of the middleweight division, there are some fantastic fights coming up and some to be made. Check out our odds for Till vs Vettori, where the oddsmakers are torn on who is the favorite.
Next up in the division is Kevin Holland vs Derek Brunson. Kevin Holland he’s favored to pick up his sixth win in a row, bet $158 to make a $100 profit.